Government predicts economic growth in Russia

Russian Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin said that the data for the first months of this year indicate that the Russian economy has entered a new phase of growth. However, in order to increase it, it is necessary to implement a number of reforms, he said, speaking today at the Moscow Exchange Forum.

"The economy has entered a new phase of the economic cycle and is growing rapidly," the head of the Ministry of Economic Development said.

Oreshkin pointed out that "growth this year will be good" (in March, he said that Russia's GDP this year could grow by 2%), Interfax reported.

"As for 2018, 2019 and 2020, more sustainable growth can be achieved only through active private investment," Oreshkin specified.

Sberbank chief executive German Gref, speaking at an economic conference about Russia’s economic growth rates in 2017-2018, said that the growth is pre-determined.

The dependence of Russia’s economic growth rates on the oil price is not very high: a high price within the range of $40 and $60 per barrel will add around 1 percentage point to the growth, Russia's Central Bank Chief Elvira Nabiullina said.

"The potential economic growth rates amount to 1.5-2% if there are no structural transformations," the Central Bank Chief explained.

A professor at the department of the stock market and investments at the Higher School of Economics, Alexander Abramov, speaking to Vestnik Kavkaza, drew attention to the uncertainty of the government's information on how this growth will be achieved. "We should understand how the growth will be achieved. It can be achieved due to both domestic demand and investments, changes in the structure of exports and imports and production reserves," he listed.

"According to the latest reports of the Ministry of Economic Development, in the current months there is a growth based on the growth of industrial reserves, when on the eve of the planned economic recovery entrepreneurs start accumulating production stocks. Until the government has not deciphered what the GDP growth consists of, the statements of Maxim Oreshkin and Elvira Nabiullina should be perceived as verbal intervention," Alexander Abramov stressed.

According to him, in order to strengthen economic growth, they need to concentrate on two areas in the coming years. "On the one hand, it's about improving the investment climate, on the other hand, they need to weaken monetary and credit policy," the professor at the department of the stock market and investments at the Higher School of Economics believes.

The head of the finance, monetary circulation and credit department at RANEPA, Alexander Khandruev, urged not to dwell on GDP statistics. "GDP is the result of personal consumption, quantitative consumption, gross accumulation and net exports. GDP is a value that can be manipulated, but other indicators are really important, in particular, an economic structure behind the GDP, "he explained.

Alexander Khandruyev also called for improving the investment climate in Russia to achieve economic growth. "Economy will not grow if business becomes unprofitable and companies with state participation prevail. The main problem of Russia is the problem of institutions, in particular, such as the protection of property and the protection of creditors' rights. It is also necessary to withdraw from the regime of sanctions and counter-sanctions. Which means a long, laborious work that requires effective decision-making," the head of the finance, monetary circulation and credit department at RANEPA concluded.