France: a fateful Sunday

On Sunday, French citizens will elect their next president. Experts and sociologists don't doubt that Emmanuel Macron is going to win. However, skeptics may argue that the US presidential elections or a referendum in the UK haven't finished as analysts predicted, and the poll results are not the best indicator. But in it should be noted that the supporters and opponents of Brexit were very close, and the US electoral system has its own specifics, which allowed Trump to win. French elections are different: more than 60% of voters are ready to cast their votes for Macron, in other words, according to polls he's too far ahead.

Meanwhile, the rise of right-wing populists in the Western European countries of the EU since Donald Trump became President of the United States not only received no additional impetus, it just stopped. Austria voted for candidate from the Green Party, while ultra-right party of Netherlands' Geert Wilders received significantly less votes than it expected. After a long inner-party struggle, "Alternative for Germany" shifted towards extreme nationalism and lost much of its popularity. If nothing unexpected happens before Sunday, Marin Le Pen won't win. According to the German political scientist Claire Demesmay, in the second round, Le Pen counts on additional support from a certain part of the electorate of republican Francois Fillon. However, it's extremely important for French conservatives that the candidate they support is serious and is fit to become president. According to Claire Demesmay, Le Pen lacks these qualities.

Other things are actually much more frightening. Macron's win doesn't resolve the problems of millions of voters, who will vote for Marin Le Pen on Sunday. Potential supporter of Le Pen - not very wealthy and not the most educated white Frenchman, who believes that the essence of his social problems and the lack of adequately paid jobs lies in globalization of labor markets, economic migrants and refugees, as well as in large concerns, which are sattisfied with this state of affairs. The euro, expensive for the French economy, weakens country's export potential, which leads to a negative trade balance, as well as unemployment, which is currently at about 10%. For comparison, in the export-oriented Germany this figure doesn't even reach 4%.

As Spiagel's columnist Thomas Fricke writes that so far, there have been almost no serious attempts to address the crisis, caused by globalization. "Except for a couple of pleasant statements that those who lose to globalization won't be forgotten, as well as statements about the advantages of free trade, we see nothing," he notes. "This also applies to France and Emmanuel Macron. This happens at a time when the next shock is expected to follow similar scenario: many people will also benefit from digitalization, and economists will say that overall, it plays a positive role for the economy - but, just like with globalization, this won't help those who lost," he warns. According to Fricke, if old elites win, it will probably happen only because the majority reflexively votes against big changes. "The issue is how long will societies afford this. Perhaps today's minority may the majority after the next crisis," he concludes. This is the issue that Emmanuel Macron has to address if he wins. However, four years may not be enough. It may not be enough to carry out serious economic reforms. And then Marin Le Pen will be able to enter the decisive battle for power. In this sense, there will be fateful elections in France this Sunday: this is the last chance for political survival of traditional political elites and pro-European France.