Will anti-Iranian coalition be created?

Yesterday, Vladimir Putin congratulated his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani on being re-elected to the post of head of state. As Kremlin press service reported, both sides confirmed plans on deepening bilateral cooperation in the framework of agreements, reached during the visit of Iranian President to the Russian Federation on March 27-28 of 2017. Particular attention was paid to the issues of trade and economic cooperation, including the implementation of major joint projects in the oil and gas field and in the field of peaceful atom. While discussing the situation in Syria, they have stressed the importance of increasing joint efforts to promote political and diplomatic settlement of the conflict, in particular within the framework of Astana process and through the implementation of memorandum on creation of de-escalation zones. It was agreed to continue contacts both in bilateral and multilateral formats.

During multimedia round table "Iran: New Challenges?" Russian experts analyzed the situation in Iran, predicting the development of events around its nuclear program in the light of statements made by Donald Trump and other politicians during Trump's visit to the Middle East.

A specialist in the modern history of Libya and the Arab states of the Middle East and North Africa of the Faculty of Humanities of the HSE, Grigory Lukyanov, expressed opinion that Iran's growing role in regulating security problems in surrounding countries, like Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, demonstrates that Iran's voice must be heard: "Preservation of the current state of affairs hurts the settlement process and makes it harder to hear all participants who can influence the situation. Of course, Iran is not alone here. Turkey is in the same situation in many ways. It can talk to the US through NATO, but Erdogan's meeting with Trump was very short, which makes us doubt the dialogue between the US and Turkey at the highest level."

According to Lukyanov, "the European Union is extremely interested in preserving the nuclear deal. Confrontation, initiated by Saudi Arabia and supported by the US, does not satisfy its interests. On the other hand, in the conditions of Brexit, in the context of multiple conflicts within the EU itself, all of this makes it very difficult for the European Union to build a dialogue with the US on this issue. There are almost no opportunities for the EU to influence the US policy. But Iran can work with the EU, which is able to become a source of investments and technologies that are extremely needed in order to effectively develop the country's economy and to fulfill President Rouhani's election promises."

Lukyanov noted that in addition to the EU, Iran also has other partners: "China is a consumer of Iranian oil. Like Russia, it is a member of the UN Security Council and plays an important role in Eurasian politics. In the framework of various routes, China views Iran as one of its leading partners in building integration between the West and the East. Russia can also play a huge role, since it has important position in the international arena and in Syria. Iran can rely on these countries to overcome the state of isolation, in which it was forced by the United States and Saudi Arabia."

Analyzing internal political situation in the country, senior researcher at the Center of Middle East Studies of the Oriental Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladimir Sazhin, said: "Young people voted for Rouhani. He was supported by educated people, students, by intelligentsia, by residents of large cities. But at the same time, there was a certain consolidation of the opposition. If it will continue, it will create political difficulties for Rouhani. Rouhani also has a huge work to do in economy. I think he will continue to strengthen cooperation with the European Union, Japan and Korea. Ties with China have been established long ago. Of course, a lot will depend on investments. Now Iran requires two essential things: large foreign investments in almost all branches of the economy and high technologies. Countries I named can give that."

According to Sazhin, Trump's visits to Saudi Arabia and Israel showed a lot of things: "I don't remember when the US President made his first foreign visit to Saudi Arabia. It's clear that this is a challenge to Iran. In Saudi Arabia, Trump signed agreements on 300-380 billion investments, 100-110 billion of which will be spent on purchase of modern weapons. It shows the there's a possibility of creation of an anti-Iranian coalition. Saudi Arabia and Israel will be at the head of this coalition. Egypt, Jordan, Qatar and other countries of the Persian Gulf are ready to join it. That's what Trump discussed in Riyadh and Tel Aviv."