Ongoing talks

The Nagorno-Karabakh peace settlement process might overcome its current deadlock: the recent meeting of Russian, Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents ended in a joint declaration. This declaration, however, does not give a definite answer to the question of whether Baku and Yerevan, with the mediation of Moscow, are capable of finding a peaceful solution to the problem.

The optimistic prognoses of some experts are based on the mere fact of the eighth trilateral meeting. The closing statement of the meeting, however, offers only two conclusive principles that are to define further negotiations. Firstly, the exchange of prisoners of war should be conducted as soon as possible, and secondly, both sides should be dedicated to peaceful investigations of near-border incidents with the help of OSCE Minsk group special representatives.

The first item is a conclusion to a discussion that lasted for over a year and started when the humanitarian aspect of the conflict was brought to the attention of the international community. The second one is also very important, as tensions on the Azeri-Armenian border have increased considerably over the recent past. Yerevan has welcomed this decision, but some experts feared that Baku, in light of its recent bellicose rhetoric, would have a problem accepting it. Therefore, the fact that the Azerbaijani President signed the closing declaration dedicated to principles of non-aggression is a considerable achievement.

Another important paragraph of the document stipulates continuation of trilateral negotiations, supplementing OSCE Minsk Group efforts.

It seems that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev took up the Nagorno-Karabakh issue pretty seriously this time. In the past two years the Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents have abandoned the bilateral format of their negotiations for a trilateral one, and this tendency appears to be a long-term trend. Other Minsk Group co-chairs, the USA and France, do not object to this development, as the Caucasus is not the major concern of these powers and as they still have observer missions sent to the region as a means of control over the negotiations.
It is hard to overestimate the role of Moscow's mediation for the conflict parties. However, for now it’s obvious that Russia is unable or unwilling to pressure Yerevan, despite the urgent need for Armenian troops to retreat from certain Karabakh regions for the peace process. The recent Sochi meeting didn’t clarify the issue.

The Presidents didn’t officially comment on the results of Sochi meeting, so this round of negotiations is obviously not over yet.

Evgeny Krishtalev, exclusively to VK