Nursultan Nazarbayev plans early elections

There are growing indications of upcoming presidential election in Kazakhstan. Since according to the Constitution, the next election is to be held only in two years, therefore, it will be the early election.  The question of why President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who confirmed his legitimacy and popularity in 2015, wants to confirm it again a year before the constitutional term remains open.

The topic of early presidential elections is again being discussed in Kazakh media and in the expert community. Kazakh political analyst Sultanbek Sultangaliyev told Vestnik Kavkaza that the reason for this was Nursultan Nazarbayev's October statement, which had a significant social component (raising the minimum wage by one and a half times, increasing the salaries of certain categories of workers, reducing tariffs for housing and communal services, developing a new mortgage program "7-20-25", etc.). “Prior to the statement, possible holding of early parliamentary elections as a necessary mechanism for the final formation of a modernized system of checks and balances was mainly discussed," Sultangaliyev noted.

In addition, Nazarbayev makes working trips around the country and promises to provide additional financial assistance to the regions. Performances in the regions strongly resemble the election campaign. There are noticeable personnel shake-ups at the top. Finally, most likely, it was Akorda that requested the officials (not ordered) not to take a vacation and leave the country in the next six months.

Experience suggests that it is a sign that Nazarbayev has started something serious. And given the situation in the country - most likely, it is the next early election. Political scientists note: if that's right, then there is only one question - how many votes will the winner get.

Director of the Group of Risk Assessment Dosym Satpayev told Vestnik Kavkaza that it has become a tradition to hold early elections in Kazakhstan. Another thing, what are the motives for holding early elections? In addition to the tradition, officials, as a rule, explain it with the deteriorating economic situation, instability in oil prices and other crises. That's how it was in 2015. Now, according to the expert, there is no need to hold early elections, given that the president, according to the Constitution, is able to run an unlimited number of times. "Rather, this is the president's attempt to replay the expectations of the people, to make unexpected moves," Satpayev said.

Political scientist Daniyar Ashimbaev expressed a similar view . He believes that holding early elections may be a desire of the authorities to play proactively: "If we consider the practice of early elections in Kazakhstan, they are as usual as the common ones. This is a confirmation of the legitimacy of the system, that is, the on the one hand it additionally expresses nationwide support for the system, on the other hand, it is an attempt to paint the internal political and social spheres," Ashimbayev believes.

Experts say it is easy to organize elections. All structures are in constant readiness mode. There are many organizations in Kazakhstan whose real and concrete activities are not easy to understand, but they have the right to come up with such proposals, and, as a rule, the election initiative immediately finds due support, as happened in 2015, when the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan considered it expedient. There is even a special financial reserve for election processes, which can be used as soon as the issue of early elections is finally decided.

From the Kazakh political analyst Sultanbek Sutangaliyev's explanations, it follows that early elections might be needed to start a relatively long transfer of power. "Speaking of the notorious transit of power in Kazakhstan, it is necessary to understand that no major changes in the socio-political situation in the country are foreseen in the next two years. Kazakhstan is on the eve of realizing the Iranian model of supreme power-sharing, in which along with the presidency there will be even more influential branch of power, tied to the first president of the republic. The current legislation in the form of the laws 'On the first president', 'On the Leader of the nation' and 'On the Security Council', as well as the political weight of Nursultan Nazarbayev allows him not to hold on to the presidency, but to act as a national arbiter. However, the imbalance in relations within the elite, as well as an elementary political reliance on providing the future real successor with the time needed to strengthen his positions with the help of the Leader of the Nation, may force Nursultan Nazarbayev to hold an early presidential election in the first half of 2019," Sultangaliyev believes.

He noted a number of signs indicating holding of the early presidential election in Kazakhstan. In addition to those already mentioned, these are head of the presidential administration Adilbek Dzhaksybekov's unexpected resignation and the urgent forming of election commissions. "Nazarbayev will win the early election once again, which will win him time until 2024 to realize a soft transit of power without any sudden force majeure and destabilizing phenomena," the political scientist believes.

Dosym Satpayev, in turn, believes that Nazarbayev has already minimized the possibility of serious internal processes - the political field has been cleansed to the extent that there is not a single real competitor, he is the president, head of the National Security Council and a life senator. All this guarantees stability. At the same time, the expert extremely neatly and ethically recalled the state leader's respectable age. Any suddenness will instantly expand the uncertainty, which is not felt now, and then various threats may arise. Therefore, the head of state's current actions can be understood, perhaps, only in one way, whether the local elite likes it or not - he has consolidated government authority in order to avoid crisis situations and destabilizing factors.

The expert believes that if the election is held without the participation of Nursultan Nazarbayev, then all attention will be focused on the candidates participating in the presidential race, because there may be a successor among them. It's intriguing, because no one can name the successor to the president now.