Damascus and armed opposition did not find common ground

Last week, representatives of the guarantor countries of the Syrian truce (Russia, Iran, Turkey) reaffirmed their commitment to the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of Syria at a meeting in the framework of the 12th round of the Astana process. They also condemned the US administration’s decision to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Syrian Golan Heights.

Iran, Russia and Turkey rejected attempts to create new realities "on the ground" under the pretext of fighting terrorism and expressed their determination to resist the separatist plans aimed at undermining the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria, as well as the national security of neighboring countries. The parties reportedly agreed to invite Syria’s  neighbors - Iraq and Lebanon - to join the Astana process.

As Middle East Eye writes in the article Syrian opposition denounce 'terrorist' regime as talks in Kazakhstan end without deal, hopes that the Syrian government and the armed opposition would agree on a committee to draw up a new constitution for the war-torn country, a key component of any peace deal, have been dashed once again. The disappointment came after delegates from both sides met separately with Geir Pedersen, the new UN envoy for Syria, in Kazakhstan's capital city last week within the framework of the so-called Astana process led by Russia, Turkey and Iran.Negotiations have been going on for more than a year to choose names for the 150-person committee in which each side will have 50 seats.  Fifty other members are to be chosen by the UN from Syrian civil society.  Syrian government intransigence is blocking a final agreement, Ahmad Toma, the leader of the opposition team, told Middle East Eye after the meeting ended here.   "Forty-four of the UN's 50 are agreed, but the regime wants to pick the last six names. They want more people than us. This is the obstacle," he said.

Western governments have been sceptical about the Astana process, which began in 2017 and which they fear is a way of detracting from the Geneva talks which have sputtered on for seven years. In November, Staffan de Mistura, the outgoing UN envoy for Syria, described the failure of the last attempt at forming a constitutional committee as a "missed opportunity". Five months later it is still not agreed, but many analysts believe the Geneva talks have also achieved very little. Even when the committee is formed, there will be further scope for disputes over its agenda and voting mechanisms. Then there is substance.

Last week's meeting showed how wide the gap is between the two sides. Although the government delegation, headed by Bashar Jaafari, Syria's representative to the UN in New York, and the opposition team sat in the same hall in Nursultan for the concluding plenary session, they did not talk face-to-face, either then or earlier, in the two days of meetings. At separate press conferences there was no hint of compromise. Toma said: "The regime is the biggest terrorist in Syria. How can we co-operate with such a regime?" Meanwhile, Jaafari denounced people "who use phrases like 'the moderate opposition' and who said there were no terrorists in Syria".

There were also major disagreements over Turkey's role in Syria. Turkey has given aid and military backing to opposition forces in the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib, one of the last areas which the Syrian government army, backed by Russian air power, has not yet regained. Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed in Sochi last year on a de-escalation mechanism under which a 15km-deep buffer zone between government and rebel forces would be established around Idlib and the main road to Damascus would be re-opened. 

Turkey would help to disarm militant groups, in particular Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an affiliate of al-Qaeda. In return, the Syrian army would hold back on any ground offensive to retake the province. The Russian-Turkish deal was also meant to promote prisoner exchanges.    Nine Syrian troops held by the rebels, and nine rebels held by the government, were swapped last week in a village south of al Bab, under the supervision of the UN and the Syrian Arab Red Crescent.  It was the third such exchange. But the de-escalation plan has not led to a decrease in terrorist activity in Idlib

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The change of the West’s position regarding the preservation of Syrian President Bashar Assad may be fraught with a dual agenda, implying the creation of conditions for regime change,  Special Envoy of the Russian president for a Syrian Settlement Alexander Lavrentiev told TASS after the negotiations. "We notice that the rhetoric of not just Saudi Arabia, but even leading Western countries - the United States, Great Britain, France - has changed. Recently, Paris announced that the French side admits the preservation of Syrian President Bashar Assad in power, but for some certain period of time. Yes, the position softened, but what is behind this? The problem is whether there is a disguised or dual agenda implying the creation of conditions for regime change. Therefore, the Syrian government perceives these signals of a policy change towards Damascus with great apprehension. The Syrian government needs security guarantees, " Lavrentyev said. According to him, the level of trust is quite low and it is hard to raise it, but "the history of other countries shows that it is possible to find options, even if the level of distrust is overwhelming and people look at each other only through crosshairs of machine guns."

The next meeting on Syria will be held in the capital of Kazakhstan in July.