Novelty in economics: Model for predicting Azeri Light prices

A book written by a team of Azerbaijani authors dedicated to forecasting AzeriLight oil prices - “World Oil Market: Influencing Factors and Forecast” - is currently available for purchase. This scientific work was published in April in Springer, becoming the first book of Azerbaijani economists in this world-famous publishing house.

Rector of Azerbaijan State Economic University (UNEC), doctor of economics, professor Adalat Muradov was initiator and head of this project.

Director of the Economic Research Institute, doctor of Economics, professor Yadulla Hasanli and director of the UNEC Business School, visiting fellow at the Harvard University and the Russian and Eurasian Studies Center, associate professor Nazim Gadzhiev were also working on this book.

This scientific work was created on the basis of contract signed between the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) and the UNEC in 2015. The UNEC Business School's Economic Development Laboratory carried out research project “Forecasting the price of Azerbaijani oil on international market in the medium and long term.”

Authors discuss new trends and challenges in the global economy, show factors affecting the market value of crude oil, give forecasts for international market value of oil until 2020, and, for the first time ever, build econometric (ARIMA, Trend and Hybrid) models that provide reliable forecast for medium and long-term outlook for Azeri oil (AzeriLight).

Scientific and practical assessments and proposals presented in this book can be used by students, teachers of universities, employees of research centers involved in the socio-economic development of their countries or preparation and implementation of state programs.