Political transformations in Armenia after Velvet Revolution and Russia’s interests

The year 2018 was marked by a radical transformation of the internal political landscape in Armenia. After amendments to the constitution came into force in March 2018, the transition from semi-presidential to parliamentary government entered the final stage. For the first time in the history of the country, a new president was chosen not by the people, but the parliament of the republic.

On March 2, the Armenian parliament elected a new president of the country -Armen Sarkissian -  90 deputies out of 101 supported his candidacy. Over the years, Sarkissian worked as the senior ambassador of Armenia to Europe, the ambassador of Armenia to Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, the Vatican, the UK, the head of the Armenian mission to the EU. The broad international liaisons allowed Sarkissian to enlist the support of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) deputies, its allies - the Dashnaktsutyun party - and the majority of oppositionists.

The political situation in Armenia became tense at the end of March last year with the appointment of Serzh Sargsyan, who has been the President of the country for 10 years, since 2008, as prime minister.  In accordance with the new constitution, Prime Minister consolidates the main powers and competencies and determines the state’s domestic and foreign policy. On April 17, the parliament approved Serzh Sargsyan’s candidacy for the post of the prime minister, 77 parliamentarians out 94 present voted for him, which caused the large-scale anti-government rallies. The leader of the Yelk opposition faction Nikol Pashinyan called on the Armenian people to block the streets and highways and announced the beginning of the Velvet Revolution.

Russia has closely followed the developments in Armenia, which is considered to be Russia's key ally in the Caucasus, the member of the EAEU and the CSTO. Moscow’s concern, apparently, was caused by the possibility of a political crisis developing into a violent confrontation of the conflicting parties. In addition, the events in Armenia unfolded against the backdrop of Russia's confrontation with the West and the ongoing Ukrainian crisis. Therefore, it was important to determine whether the mass protests in Armenia were a continuation of a series of ‘color revolutions’ in the post-Soviet space and whether they could lead to a sharp deterioration in the Russian-Armenian relations. Such assessments were caused by some opposition forces in Armenia, for example, the Free Democrats and the Yelk Union, which advocated the deepening of relations with the West. The Yelk representatives criticized the country's authorities for joining the EAEU, raised the issue of the need to revise the conditions of the Russian armed forces staying in Armenia. But while the protests continued, Moscow refrained from interfering in the situation, considering what was happening as an internal affair of Armenia, urging all parties to avoid violence, to show sanity and restraint.

Mass protests that began under the motto "Take a step, say no to Serzh" led to the resignation of Sargsyan, and soon the leader of the protest movement Pashinyan was approved as the head of government. The revolutionary events in Armenia and the transit of power were not accompanied by a large-scale power confrontation and did not lead to serious casualties. President Sarkissian played an important role in preserving the situation in the legal field - he mediated Sargsyan’s negotiations with Pashinyan and held the telephone consultations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as well as Karen Karapetyan, who at that time was serving as the First Deputy Prime Minister of Armenia.

The Velvet Revolution that took place in the spring of 2018 was the result of the accumulated economic and social problems, as well as the growing people's distrust of the government structures. Enough time has passed since the change of power in Armenia, and one might say that the worst fears have not been confirmed - we should not expect radical steps in relations with Russia from the Armenian authorities. Apparently, Pashinyan does not intend to drastically change the country's foreign policy. At a meeting in Moscow, in September 2018, Pashinyan stressed several times the importance of maintaining special strategic relations and expressed readiness to deepen the military-technical cooperation between Moscow and Yerevan.

The early parliamentary elections of December 9, 2018, that the Pashinyan bloc won with over 70% of the votes, demonstrated a high level of people's trust in the new authorities. By the beginning of 2019, the forces that consider themselves winners of the Velvet Revolution controlled the government, the parliament, the Council of Elders of Yerevan, and their leaders Nikol Pashinyan, Ararat Mirzoyan, Hayk Marutyan took the leading positions in all the above-mentioned structures. However, Armenia will have to walk through a taught path of implementing long overdue reforms, which may be accompanied by conflicts between various branches of government, business groups and clans.

Today, the state functioning of Armenia is ensured largely due to formal and informal agreements between key internal interest groups with external forces, among which the Russian Federation as a security guarantor, the “collective West” as the main financial creditor, and Iran, which has geopolitical and economic interests in Armenia. The most significant interests of Russia include maintaining political stability in Armenia, continuing the process of the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement and building a full-fledged dialogue with the new political elites of Armenia on the key issues of the bilateral and multilateral agenda.

As recent events show, the political transformations that began in Armenia more than a year ago are far from complete. Following the executive and legislative branches, attempts are being made to change the judicial system. At the moment, these changes have not affected the fundamental foundations of the Russian-Armenian strategic cooperation. At the same time, the prospects for the Russian-Armenian relations will largely depend on the ability of the key figures in Armenia’s political circles to find compromises in implementing reforms and shaping the country's foreign policy.