Georgian "Weichkrieg"

There is real plan to bring South Ossetia and Abkhazia back to Georgia.
If the opinions of official Tbilisi and the opposition differ on what Georgia did in August 2008, they are unique in their wish to bring Abkhazia and South Ossetia back to Georgia. Today we can't expect a repeat of the 2008 war, as the West is still ready to support Georgia, but not in public. In such circumstances the most possible scenario is an attempt to bring back the territories by means of establishing informational, trade and other relations. The first steps in this direction were made by Georgia at the end of January. In the Ministry of Reintegration of Georgia a new document was drawn up: "State strategy towards the occupied territories: reintegration through collaboration".

The main thrust of the document is social policy: the development of the Abkhaz language, personal contacts, health care systems, recreation of roads and bus routes. After the plan was agreed on, the question of financing the project arose. The US were the first to agree to help Georgia in sponsorship. Though, no concrete steps have been yet made in this direction.

Yet, Georgia seems to have a real plan of reincorporating Abkhazia and South Ossetia besides the declared one.

Step-by-step strategy

The reintegration minister of Georgia, Timur Yakobashvili, presented the "Reintegration through collaboration" strategy in international organizations such as NATO, the European Council and got support and a guarantee of financing. This was the first step.

The second step was a controversial report by "Imedi" about a Russian "invasion" of Georgia. Although society's reaction was negative, it can not be said that the reputation of Georgia was spoiled. It's more about the reputation of the present authorities, and a reincorporation
seems to be impossible until Saakashvili ceases to be president.

One more episode is dropping of the TV Channel "First Caucasian" from the French satellite "Eutelsat". Its most famous figures are Oleg Panfilov, the head of the "Extreme Journalistic center", and Alla Dudaev, the widow of Chechen separatist leader Dzhokhar Dudayev, who
asked Georgia to give her its citizenship. This episode was considered an example of "Kremlin's intrigue" by the international community.

Then, an important step was a forum on the recognition of the genocide of the Circassians and the nations of the North Caucasus in the second part of the XIX century in Tbilisi, where a request to the Georgian parliament to acknowledge this genocide was passed.

In conclusion it can be said that it is very difficult to predict the situation. The fact that few countries have recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia gives more opportunities to Georgia to reinforce its influence in these regions.