New tanker war

In late July, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs presented Russian concept of collective security in the Persian Gulf. A new round of tensions in the region occurred amid continued pressure of the United States on Iran after a series of incidents involving tankers that happened in the Gulf of Oman in June. What is the likelihood of armed conflict? What measures proposed by Russia can become the basis for detente? Russian experts are trying to answer these and other questions.

Grigory Lukyanov, senior lecturer at the Department of Political Science of the Higher School of Economics, expert of the Russian Council on Foreign Affairs, believes that the Gulf crisis is not limited to tanker war: "It's associated with deeper security crisis that developed after 2003 after the US military operation in Iraq. Right after this operation, Iraq could no longer be called an active player in the region. We became hostages of geopolitical binary situation - conflict between Iran and the bloc of Arabian monarchies. All involved parties tried to become stronger, tried to prevent each others' growth, to a certain extent using fear of each other, resolved unpopular problems in the domestic political space.

By using the enemy factor, governments of these countries rallied the population against mostly imaginary enemy. Nevertheless, over the past few years this system not only didn't help to resolve old problems, but also created new challenges and threats to security: new conflicts, including among members of one of the most viable international regional organizations - the Gulf Cooperation Council...

Under these conditions, another tanker war (as this series of incidents in the Gulf is called) is only the tip of the iceberg, which draws attention to these crises, because they affect the energy security problem."

Head of the Department of Regional Studies of the Moscow State Linguistic University Vadim Makarenko thinks that situation is much more serious: "We're practically at war: on one side - Russia, Iran and Turkey, on the other - the United States and its allies. Situation around Iranian tanker was just an excuse to derail oil deliveries to Syria. It looks like the government of Bashar Assad largely controls the country, but the US and its allies are conserving Syrian situation. If Donald Trump succeeds at the next presidential elections, he may begin to try to change the Middle East situation from a security point of view."

Speaking about the tanker war, expert said that it's important to not forget about Iraq: “It's increasing oil production levels. It will also produce huge volumes of gas. As of today over 4 million barrels are sold daily. This may be the only country that is tied to the Persian Gulf so tightly... Sovereignty of Iraq was achieved with military, political and other assistance from Iran. From this point of view, our Foreign Ministry’s proposal for security and cooperation in the Middle East is promising, but the wounds of the Middle East can't be healed easily. All problems are associated with the balance of power."