U.S. sets up new framework for relations with Central Asia

President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev and U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs David Hale discussed the issues of peaceful settlement in Afghanistan and the country's active engagement in the regional process. The day before, the U.S. diplomat visited Kazakhstan, where he met with President of the republic Kassym-Jomart Tokaev, and held a meeting of the C5+1 high-level group, which focused on assistance in the reconstruction of Afghanistan and the implementation of regional transportation projects.

Hale conveyed "greetings and best wishes of U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo" to Shavkat Mirziyoyev. "The U.S. side appreciates the ongoing reforms in Uzbekistan in the field of state building and the formation of a strong civil society, as well as reforms aimed at improving the level and quality of life of the population, ensuring the rights and freedoms of citizens," Hale noted. He also reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to the further development of strategic partnerships and comprehensive co-operation between the two countries.

Washington praised Uzbekistan’s efforts to establish dialogue on Afghanistan, as well as to involve this long troubled state in the Central Asian region and geo-economic projects, publicly assigning Tashkent a major role in the political settlement of the situation in Afghanistan. Tashkent is interested in this country as a reliable and stable partner, not as a source of threats. Uzbekistan is working towards this goal: it is building power lines, a railway, schools and hospitals in Afghanistan, as well as offers to organize the assembly of UzAuto cars and restore textile factories.

Kazakhstan is seen by the United States as a supporting country in the Central Asian region. First, for the U.S. Kazakhstan is an important element of logistics in Afghanistan. Second, the United States has interests in Kazakhstan's energy sector.

Doctor of Political Sciences, Director of the East-West International Center for Geopolitical Forecasting Karlygash Nugmanova, speaking with Vestnik Kavkaza, summed up the results of U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs David Hale's visit to Central Asian countries: "The United States is interested in not only the Middle East, but also Central Asia. The U.S. foreign policy seeks to control the Heartland [Halford Mackinder, an English geopolitical scientist who introduced the concept of heartland - the heart of the world island and believed that Eurasia is the center of global political processes - VK]. The United States attaches great geopolitical importance to the Heartland because of its huge natural resource base. Central Asia has always been of interest to the United States in the context of the Afghan problem. Therefore, integrating Afghanistan into the relevant formats of meetings and regional dialogue programs between the U.S. and Central Asia, as well as supporting more regional and triangular cooperation projects with Afghan and Central Asian partners will remain a priority."

U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs David Hale's visit with the so-called the C5+1 format [Central Asian countries and the U.S. - VK] is the second step towards setting up a new framework for relations in the region. The first step, that is, the base for improving cooperation, was made as a result of U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry's visit to Central Asian countries in 2015. In the history of the United States, John Kerry was the first secretary of state to visit all five republics of the region during one trip. According to the expert, the C5+1 dialogue remains an important tool for regional cooperation between Central Asia and the United States. "John Kerry’s recipes for Central Asia are not a zero-sum game," Nugmanova noted.

After the closure of U.S. military bases [in Uzbekistan's Khanabad in 2005 and in Kyrgyzstan's Manas in 2014 ], Central Asia has started to attract increasing attention again. One of the manifestations of this attention, according to Karlygash Nugmanova, was an attempt to conceptually rethink the region's geopolitical nature and its place in a new emerging reality.

Central Asia is a potential trafficking corridor for drugs. The so-called northern route to move heroin from Afghanistan to Europe, Russia and the CIS countries passes through the region. According to UNODC analysts, 15-30% of Afghan heroin run through the northern route. From Afghanistan, drugs are imported into Tajikistan and then transported through Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan to Russia. And more than 10% of heroin stay in every country. In 2014, Afghanistan's heroin production amounted to 640 tons. "It will be practically impossible to get rid of heroin trafficking flows without drastic changes in the situation in Afghanistan. Therefore, the prospect of imposing Afghanistan on Central Asia is not encouraging, but this kind of integration is probably very beneficial for the United States," Karlygash Nugmanova believes.

According to her, the new format of dialogue implies a greater convergence, which will allow the United States to act as a moderator in their relations. Washington is mainly interested in Central Asia in the context of the Afghan problem. At the same time, issues of controlling the growth of China's influence remain important priorities for the United States in Central Asia.

"Washington’s goal is to contain Beijing, which sees the region as its 'strategic rear'. China is showing ever-increasing interest in Central Asia's oil and gas reserves, in particular, those in Kazakhstan. This interest is not only due to the fact that the republic borders on Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, which allows laying oil pipelines directly to China, but also because Kazakhstan is a natural 'continental bridge' leading to Iran and Iraq, that is, to the region where China plans to strengthen its influence in the near future," the expert emphasized.

Nugmanova believes that Hale's visit to Nur-Sultan demonstrated to China and Russia that the United States sees the Central Asian region as a single entity, trying to include all the regional countries as its partners.

Kazakhstan is an "interesting country with great prospects," and its strategic importance for the United States is supported by vast energy reserves. Let's not forget about the 2020 U.S. presidential election. It’s time for the current U.S. administration to draw a beautiful picture of foreign policy successes during the Trump presidency. The United States seriously fears the conjugation of the Eurasian Economic Union with China's New Silk Road project. Beijing involves a significant part of Southeast Asia in its project, up to Iran. The result should be a single Eurasian market in which the U.S. will be out of the game. Washington created, in contrast to the Chinese, its own project - the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area. But if conjugation arises between the Eurasian Union and the New Silk Road, most of the region will be outside the U.S. economic zone.

Researcher Graham Fuller conceptually formulated a vision of future U.S. politics in Central Asia, highlighting the following American interests: 1) prevent Russia's return; 2) stop the escalation of Islamic radicalism and fundamentalism; 3) gain control over Caspian oil; 4) stabilize the region by influencing local governments.

All this can be regarded as a reflection of the "Grand Chessboard", where everyone is trying to lead his own party, impose his own game, once mentioned by Zbigniew Brzezinski. Today, the United States wants to indicate that its interest in Central Asia has both an economic and a geopolitical context, despite the fact that the international military coalition is ready to reduce its presence in Afghanistan.