"Everyone looks at capital": What determines success of Moscow meeting on Afghanistan?

Russia will try to intensify inter-Afghan negotiations once again. This time through the mediation of regional players. According to Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, Moscow will host a conference that will bring together representatives of China, Pakistan, the U.S. and Russia on March 18. Qatar, which has hosted Afghan peace talks, has been invited to the Moscow meeting as an honored guest.

Zakharova said the negotiations will focus on "ways to help advance inter-Afghan talks in Doha, reduce the level of violence and end the armed conflict in Afghanistan and help it develop as an independent, peaceful and self-sufficient state that would be free from terrorism and drug trafficking."

The announcement to hold the conference in Moscow was made after the U.S.-proposed "peace plan" to replace the current Afghan government with an interim power-sharing government between Afghan President Ashraf Ghani's Cabinet, the Taliban and the rest of the forces. An initiative directed to all three parties should give impetus to the stalled Qatar talks on a political settlement of the conflict. Russia, by the way, supports the U.S. idea of a transitional inclusive government as part of a peace deal.

Will external players be able to reconcile the Afghans?

Former Russian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Deputy Chairman of the Association of Russian Diplomats Andrei Baklanov believes that the aggravated situation in Afghanistan makes a diplomatic breakthrough necessary.

"We must once again try to give impetus to political contacts aimed at a settlement in Afghanistan. There is at least dual power, but in fact there is multiple power. There is little subordination on the ground. And power is mainly held by Taliban (an organization banned in Russia) and other associations. They practically solve all the issues on their own. The country is falling to pieces. And this is very dangerous, especially since there are military-political problems, the system's struggle against drugs, etc. We need peace. This will not be easy to achieve, but everyone is already tired of the war. And this is the main factor that contributes to possible success in Moscow," the diplomat told Vestnik Kavkaza.

He proceeds from the fact that external forces, including Russia and the United States, can achieve the formation of a provisional government:

"Despite the fact they are highly decentralized, if the main political forces come to some kind of agreed decision and provide some positive agreed changes in the capital, then we can move far along the path of normalization. In the east, the role of the capital is very high - everyone looks at the capital".

At the same time, Baklanov clarified that a compromise of forces within Afghanistan is needed to advance the political process. It remains to be seen what it will be like; a long and painstaking work is needed to achieve it.

"(The conference in Moscow) is not a wrap-up meeting, but a working meeting in new surroundings. When everyone is clearly tired of the war, a compromise, albeit temporary, is possible," the orientalist added.

Canadian-Pakistani political scientist Waqar Rizvi believes the success of the Moscow talks depends on the readiness of external forces to refrain from imposing their will on the Afghans.

"It depends on what the approach at the summit will be. If attendees expect that the international community can dictate to the Afghan government and/or the Taliban about who can or cannot rule Afghanistan in the future, then that is a starting point which neither will accept. The constant fear is a Taliban takeover, but that isn’t in Americans’ or anyone else’s hands really. The fact that we are at this point all these years later means the Taliban are a lot more ingrained than external powers would like to admit," he told Vestnik Kavkaza.

Americans won't be in Moscow

Despite receiving the invitation to the Moscow meeting, the United States has not yet confirmed its participation in it. "The United States has met in the past with Russia in support of the Afghanistan peace process. Recently we have discussed scheduling a meeting, but the United States has nothing to confirm at this time," a State Department spokesperson said.

In 2020, U.S.-Russian relations have deteriorated over Afghanistan. U.S. intelligence accused Moscow of offering bounty to Taliban militants (the organization banned in Russia)  for killing U.S. soldiers. Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov denied the accusations, saying "we are not interested in victory of terrorism in Afghanistan."

Andrei Baklanov believes that Washington and Moscow can work together to resolve the Afghan crisis.

"Afghanistan is one of the topics on which we could interact, especially, there were precedents. In the early 2000s, consultations were held on an ongoing basis, there were counter-terrorism working groups. But at the initiative of the West, these groups stopped working. But in my opinion, we had very reasonable, business relations with the Americans, with the European counter-terrorism representatives in the group which I attended. Now the situation is a little different, and I admit that we can establish cooperation in the Middle East".

Waqar Rizvi recognizes competition between Russia and the United States in Afghanistan, but he is confident that cooperation between them will benefit both centers of power.

"The geopolitical tensions between the two make it tough. However, the resolution of the issue would be to the benefit of both. The Americans badly need a save-face solution to leave, and realize that the money, effort and military involvement has not so far resulted in the desired outcome. That is not to say that nation-building, in the way the Americans and others may have wanted for Afghanistan, was ever meant to be a simple undertaking. The previous Russian experience, as well as its good relations with Iran, a vital neighbour of Afghanistan, and others, may play a helpful role. The focus must remain a holistic approach, and not just a fight over who will maintain influence over either Kabul or the Taliban (the group banned in Russia)," the expert stressed.

The peace deal reached by the Trump administration committed the U.S. to withdrawing its 2,600 troops from Afghanistan by May 1. The experts cited by Bloomberg suggest reconsidering this deadline, since Taliban-led violence continues to destabilize Afghanistan. More than 8,000 civilians were killed or injured in Afghanistan in 2020. If Joseph Biden withdraws troops, and the country sinks into another wave of civil war, it will call into question all U.S. efforts to establish democracy in this country and make almost $1 trillion spent on the Afghan campaign meaningless.

Rizvi doubts that the Americans will be able to meet the May 1st deadline. The fact is that since the Doha talks and agreement, there hasn’t been enough of an intense follow-up, especially by the Americans. Kabul did all it could to delay the release of Taliban prisoners, and the prospects of direct talks were always in doubt due to Kabul’s apprehensions. 

"Without respecting that initial Doha deal, it is hard to see how the Taliban and Kabul can work together long enough to sit down at the same table for negotiations, and an interim government seems like a wholly far-fetched idea at this time," the political scientist noted.