U.S. fears Iran won’t scale back to 2015 nuclear deal

U.S. officials have extremely low expectations as world powers resume negotiations with Iran to curb its nuclear program, believing the Iranians aren't yet ready to negotiate seriously, Axios is told.

Senior officials in the U.S. intelligence community have assessed the new Iranian president, Ebrahim Raisi, thinks of his predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, as a weak accommodationist who negotiated a bad deal with the U.S. and other world powers in 2015.

To the extent there's optimism within the Biden administration, it's rooted in the hope Raisi may ultimately be willing to negotiate a new agreement not so different from the last but branded a "Raisi" deal rather than a Rouhani one.

The latest talks in Vienna will be the seventh round of meetings involving Iran, E.U. countries, the United Kingdom, Russia and China — but the first in nearly six months. The U.S. is an indirect participant.

Top Biden officials are deeply worried Iran will go too far in its current nuclear development, making it too late to return to the 2015 agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), according to sources familiar with internal administration discussions. The concern is rooted in the fact scientists can't unlearn the knowledge they gain once they develop advanced centrifuges.

In response to Axios' reporting, a State Department spokesperson said: "We have made clear that Iran's continued nuclear escalations are unconstructive and inconsistent with its stated goal of returning to mutual compliance with the JCPOA."

The spokesperson insisted Iran's nuclear escalations "will not provide Iran any negotiating leverage as we return to talks."