Mamuk Areshidze: Moscow still controls Abkhazia

Tbilisi is paying special attention to the political situation in Abkhazia, where President Bagapsh's death has led to uncertainty about the country’s future. Our VK correspondent asked prominent Georgian political analyst Mamuk Areshidze to share his opinions on the current state of affairs in the region.

-       Mr. Areshidze! It’s quite clear that several political groups will struggle for power in Abkhazia. Which one is more likely to win, in your opinion? -       The one that currently dominates in the republic. I mean the one that includes Prime Minister Sergey Shamba and Vice President Alexander Ankvab. Still I’d rather not speculate. The final choice will be made by Moscow.

-       What can you say about the politicians that are now trying to come into power in Abkhazia?-       These people are well-known. Sergey Shamba is a skilled politician and experienced diplomat. He was one of the leaders of the Abkhazian national movement in the 1980s. Alexander Ankvab is a good manager. He has connections in both Abkhazia and Russia. Raul Khadzhimba is supported by veterans. He is connected with Russian special services and Vladimir Putin. I think that the main protagonists are Shamba and Ankvab. One of them will probably become the new President.
-       You mean that Moscow won’t continue to support Khadzimba?-       No. He didn’t manage to win himself when he had a good chance to do it. Now Moscow is not interested in his success.

-       And which candidate is supported by the majority of Abkhazians?

-       Society’s attitude to this point isn’t clear. There are a lot of people who are not satisfied with the present-day situation. They would rather support Khadzhimba or Butba. A lot of people believe that the modern elite’s policy towards Russia is unwise, that Abkhazia’s authorities are too loyal to the Kremlin and have no political position themselves. I think that society is not uniform.

-       In such a case an important question is: who will become the opposition leader?

-       The opposition itself is rather heterogeneous. Khadzhimba has an electorate, but so does Butba. It’s quite possible also that some other candidates will appear. In addition to this, one should not forget about the tribal system still existing in the Caucasus. It’s very important for a possible candidate to be supported by major clans.

Interview by Georgy Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi. Exclusively to VK