Will the Armenian opposition bring people to the streets this spring?

Against the background of the unprecedented confrontation between Russia and the West, the events in the Russian peacekeeping mission's zone of responsibility in Karabakh may seem routine. However, in the two weeks of March, ceasefire violations' cases became more frequent here, and the only gas pipeline leading from the Armenian territory to the de-escalation zone was damaged. At the same time, Armenian propaganda has intensified, accusing Azerbaijan of creating allegedly unbearable living conditions for the Armenian community, as well as of trying to discredit the presence of Russian peacekeepers in the region.

It seems that on the eve of the spring protests, the atmosphere is being deliberately escalated in the society. Now the "Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem" is blamed for all Armenia's troubles, allegedly ready to sacrifice the fragile regional peace, thereby opening the "second front" for Russia. The justified desire of the Azerbaijani side to understand the causes of the explosion of the gas pipeline, before allowing anyone to access it, is interpreted only as sabotage. It would seem that in order to create a humanitarian catastrophe, it was necessary to blow up the gas pipeline in winter. What is more, to carry out a dangerous action against the backdrop of the current geopolitical confrontation is short-sighted. However, the rhetoric of conspiracy theories from Armenian propaganda sounds like a guilty verdict, for which the evidence is completely unnecessary.

In general, this spring is accompanied by an abundance of new conspiracy theories, which supposedly should awaken a thirst for justice in the Armenians. Thus, a deputy from the Armenia faction, businessman Vahe Hakobyan, whose pocket project of the "Resurgent Armenia" party formed the basis of the opposition bloc, said in an interview with NEWS.am that he did not understand why Pashinyan's government should have a dialogue with Turkey, because it did not provide status guarantees for the de facto non-existent "NKR". Apparently, the military catastrophe of Armenia passed by Vahe Hakobyan, and Yerevan’s commitments to peace, de-occupation and de-blockade of transport corridors, including an inclusive dialogue in relations with neighbours, cannot at all stick in the mind of a politician-businessman who is ready to turn a peaceful political agenda into an element of bargaining.

However, if we take into account the fact that the naive populism of opposition politicians exists in the space of emotions, then we can assume who Hakobyan and demagogues like him were addressing. The purpose of such rhetoric is to eliminate the comprehension of the military defeat's reasons and the revanchist ideology's failure, replacing it with yet another hope for an indistinct future, subject to general mobilization. Such politicians do not want to admit that the intervention of Russian peacekeepers prevented the final destruction of individual separatist elements that have already managed to become the rudiments of Armenian politics today.

The revanchists are pushing the Armenian public to take action, introducing the idea that Armenians are predisposed to fight against the backdrop of geopolitical confrontation. In the current conditions, any socio-political actions against the current government seem to be something extremely risky, because they can give rise to additional chaos. However, Armenian nationalists give people illusion of choice, when as a result of the conflict between Russia and the West, Armenia will be able to choose a more successful foreign policy vector, since the Armenian diaspora prospers in the post-Soviet space, and in the EU countries, and in the United States.

But the rhetoric of pseudo-patriots does not reflect the real trends in society. Armenian citizens are concerned about the crisis in the economy, which is largely related to the structures of the EAEU, which at the moment will experience sanctions pressure. Many understand that the castling between the current and former elite is not capable of breathing life into the Armenian economy, since neither Pashinyan's team nor ex-president Kocharyan's team has anyone other than PR managers. The futility of the protest spring is connected with this. It only amuses the disgraced ego of individual politicians, but does not meet the interests of the entire Armenian society in any way.