Elections in Turkey: view from Yerevan

The recent parliamentary elections in Turkey won by the ruling Justice and Development Party stirred up political discussions in Armenia and brought the issue of Turkish-Armenian relations back in the focus of public attention. 

The process of Turkish-Armenian reconciliation started in 2008 and successfully continued in 2009 with the signing of the so-called Zurich protocols, but was stalled in 2010, when both parliaments refused to ratify these protocols.

According to several Armenian experts, this standstill in the reconciliation process was only natural on the eve of Turkish elections, and after them it would be renewed. However, these expectations were not confirmed. It turns out that, for now, the Turkish authorities have some more important issues to deal with, so the elections didn’t influence the process of establishing diplomatic relations with Armenia much, at least according to the Richard Giragosyan Regional Research Center.

According to the same source, public opinion in Turkey is in favor of reconciliation with Armenia, but the Kurdish problem, the situation in Libya and Syria as well as the issue of accommodating refugees from these countries are of more urgent concern for the Turkish government right now.

Another important condition for establishing diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey and opening the border is the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Experts suppose that Turkey would continue to support Azerbaijan no matter the consequences for Armenian-Turkish relations, as the AKP calls Azerbaijan one of Turkey’s most important strategic partners.

All in all, Armenian experts do not expect any progress in the ‘Zurich protocols’ issue any time soon. As for the other aspects of recent Turkish election results, they point out that Turkey has become more stable and its politics are now less influenced by Islamists or the military. The fact that 35 Kurdish candidates entered the Parliament is also a good sign.

The process of Armenian-Turkish reconciliation is stalled for the moment, but some major political event could change that and bring ratification of the Zurich protocols back to the top of the governments’ agenda. During his visit to London, Serzh Sargsyan pointed out that Armenia is ready to reopen dialogue with Turkey.

Susanna Petrosyan, exclusively to VK