Alexander Rahr: Turkey can be a new great power

The well-known German political scientist and expert Alexander Rahr gave an interview to Vestnik Kavkaza. He touched on the full spectrum of political themes between Russia and the Caucasus, as well as basic geopolitical aspects of the current world. We publish the fourth part of the interview, devoted to the geopolitical role of Turkey in the region.

- What do you think about a new geopolitical role for Turkey after the party of Recep Erdogan won the parliamentary elections for a third time and could form a one-party government? Relations between the party and Azerbaijan weren’t ideal, considering the Armenian issue and pressure on Turkey by Azerbaijan. As a result, Turkey had to compromise and actually blocked the process. Of course, not only Azerbaijan, but also Armenia was interested in it.

- Today I think Turkey has hardly any ambitions to expand its influence to the East. The process has been slowed down. We can think about the reasons. In the 90s the world was different. Of course, attempts to influence Central Asia, the South Caucasus and partially the North Caucasus were made.

- The leading factor was Turkish unity, rather than Islam.

- I think both aspects were important. Turkey used the vacuum which appeared there and the hopes and interests of the peoples who counted on Turkey as a path to Europe, or as a sponsor for their economies. Today there are separate states, for example, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan, who do not need big Turkish help. The Turkish economy is growing, but it is growing within the country. I thinkTurkey can be a new great power. In the sphere of energy it will play a very important strategic role: a transit corridor for all
pipelines, including Russian. It competes with Ukraine, and energy security will depend on it.

I think today Turkey has a different foreign policy. On the one hand, it is aimed at Europe. However, enthusiasm for entering the EU has run out. Turkey doesn’t want to join the EU anymore, but they have to preserve idea of a will to do so, in their national interests.

Turkey’s foreign policy is aimed at the South. Turkey, as a reasonable country, understands quite well that American cowboys can make a real mess of things in the Middle East. Today they launch an army, tomorrow withdraw it, destroy, don’t know what to do, leave, return, fight, bomb and so on. The influence of the USA in the Middle East is reducing. In the meantime, Turkey is a part of the region. It has to implement the role of the main coordinator and stabilizer of the region.

Interview by Orkan Satarov