3rd meeting in a month: what to expect from Aliyev-Pashinyan summit in Chisinau?

© Photo: Government of Armenia

On June 1, the capital of Moldova will host a meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement. A week ago the heads of state met in Moscow, less than three weeks ago in Brussels. What to expect from the new negotiation round on the European ground?

Tomorrow in Chisinau, on the sidelines of the second summit of the European Political Community, the third in a month round of talks between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will take place.

Results of Brussels, Moscow summits 

At a meeting in Brussels, the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed to mutually recognize the territorial integrity of the republics: the area of the Republic of Azerbaijan is 86,600 square kilometers, the area of the Republic of Armenia is 29,800 square kilometers.  Later, Nikol Pashinyan for the first time ever directly stated that Yerevan would recognize the Karabakh economic region as the territory of Azerbaijan, and at a meeting in Moscow, Ilham Aliyev noted that recognition makes the official position of the Armenian authorities. Pashinyan did not deny his statement.

What will happen in Chisinau?

Associate Professor of the Department of International Security at the Faculty of World Politics at Moscow State University, Doctor of Political Sciences Alexei Fenenko, in an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza, suggests that the EU may offer Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan to sign some kind of interim document that will record progress in the negotiations.

"It is quite possible that some kind of joint statement or declaration will be signed. This follows from Nikol Pashinyan's recent statements: the Armenian prime minister has no way back after his words about recognizing Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan," Aleksey Fenenko explained.

What will happen after Chisinau summit?

The expert expressed concern that after Chisinau summit, Nikol Pashinyan may face danger of physical elimination.

"The question is how the nationalists in Armenia will react to the official recognition of Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. Pashinyan may be in danger. When in 1997 President Levon Ter-Petrosyan signed a declaration of readiness to recognize the expanded autonomy of Karabakh within Azerbaijan, he was soon toppled by his own army. Therefore, I am sure, Pashinyan should think how to communicate with the Armenian society after the Chisinau summit," he said.