Alexey Naumov: Pashinyan is leading Armenia to a dead end

- In your opinion, what are the current dynamics in Russian-Armenian relations? Can we find any trends towards better collaboration?

- The dynamics are now clearly negative and with a rather accelerating trend. Although we can speak with confidence about the impossibility of an irrevocable break between Armenia and Russia, still, given the continuation of Yerevan's current foreign policy course and the preservation of Nikol Pashinyan as Prime Minister of Armenia, the forecast for Russian-Armenian relations is clearly negative. He will not be able to remove Armenia from the regional context completely, since the republic will not leave the South Caucasus physically and will always be surrounded by Azerbaijan, Türkiye, Russia, Iran and Georgia, and not by Germany, France, Belgium or Austria.

The only opportunity to change the dynamics for the better is the resignation of Nikol Pashinyan from the post of Head of the Armenian government. The thing is that blaming Russia for the failure of his policy became the only possible way to retain power for Nikol Pashinyan. Pashinyan, as a skilled politician, is interested in remaining in power, and the deterioration of ties with Russia is one of the most profitable and the easiest tools for him to achieve this goal. But therefore, Armenia's current policy is dangerous both for Russia and for the entire region of the South Caucasus: during the time that Nikol Pashinyan remains in power, he can do a lot of harmful things.

For example, excessive involvement of the West in the region through Armenia will not please any of its regional neighbours. The question here is that Pashinyan's resignation from the leadership of Armenia will allow us to see the opposite process. We will see that Yerevan will begin to behave more adequately and wisely. This is the only possible way for Armenia to improve its conditions within the country and integrate itself into economic and political ties in the region.

- What does Armenia want from Russia after the resolution of the Karabakh issue?

- Here we need to separate two directions: what Pashinyan wants, and what the population of Armenia would like. If Nikol Pashinyan, as I already said, only strives to remain in power, then the citizens of Armenia still want to get some new vision of the future for themselves and their country. Their entire bet on the eternal preservation of the territories of Azerbaijan under occupation lost, and what Armenia had been living in isolation for all these years ultimately failed and died. Therefore, now people should be given some other purpose and meaning for the future life of the Republic of Armenia.

Nikol Pashinyan offers them an image of the future of Armenia without Russia, an image of a pro-European choice and pro-Western policy, which should show Armenian citizens a new picture of their future. Unfortunately, his concept is illogical, because Armenia cannot afford to ignore its geographical location and feel like it is not a country in the South Caucasus, but a kind of Switzerland. Nowadays in Armenia we see a kind of post-traumatic syndrome of a society that lost the war, which is not yet able to come to terms with the realities and compromise, although such a compromise is urgently needed in the republic.

- How does Russia see the way to improve relations with Armenia?

- I think that Russia has finally given up on Nikol Pashinyan. It seems to me that the Russian leadership understands that it will not be able to improve relations with Armenia under Nikol Pashinyan's leadership. Not just because Pashinyan is bad, but because he cannot pursue a different policy. Any other policy - adequate, logical, aimed at integration into the region and building relations with Russia, Azerbaijan and Türkiye - will lead to the fall of Nikol Pashinyan. Pashinyan is both a source and a hostage of Yerevan's anti-Russian policy.

Therefore, Russian diplomats are now more likely to count on building relations with Yerevan after a change of power in Armenia, for example, as a result of parliamentary elections. I think the Armenian society will see that Pashinyan is leading it to a dead end. It is unpleasant for everyone to be in a post-traumatic moment. But the only possible, good treatment is to accept the situation and try to make the best of it for everyone.

- What forces will now interfere with the Russian-Armenian dialogue?

- First of all, Armenian nationalists who blame Russia for their own defeat will interfere. Then there are the Pashinyanites, for whom keeping Nikol Pashinyan in power is connected with the preservation of their careers and wealth. They will be supported in every possible way by the West - the European Union and the United States, which is aimed at reducing Russia's influence in the world and at infiltrating itself into the South Caucasus region.