Interview with editor-of-chief of Vestnik Kavkaz Alexei Vlasov for analytical publication "Euro-Asia"

Alexei Vlasov, in a recent exclusive interview, the famous American analyst Thomas Ambrosio said that the USA accepted that the South Caucasus is a sphere of influence for Russia. Do you think this statement is correct?

-  I think the American expert exaggerates a bit the Russian
presence in the South Caucasus, because at least with one of three countries in the
region, I mean Georgia, top level ties have been severed. And only now a basis of dialogue has been restored through key figures in the opposition, in the form of Mr. Nogaideli and Nino Burdzhanadze. But I believe it is going to be a long process with no clear perspectives and results.

As for influence on Azerbaijan it is true that relations with Baku have developed very dynamically recently, in economic issues, and also, but not only, in the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, but we should not think this is the

result of our systematic success. I absolutely agree with Mr. Ambrosio that the Nagorno-Karabakh problem is not a priority for Obama's administration. And because of this there is the possibility for Russia and some other countries that are interested in the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement to add some other issues to the agenda. So it is very important we use America's concessions in its strategies in the South Caucasus than push our own interests. As for relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan it is really hard to predict. I think the freezing of relations between Yerevan and Ankara is a good break for Russia to rethink its position. What will happen will become clear 2011 or 2012 rather than 2010.

-   Alexei Vlasov, in the same interview Mr. Ambrosio spoke about the possible "Finlandization" of Georgia as a result of Obama's policies. After he came to power this put paid to the possibility of Georgia joining NATO. What are relations between Russia and Georgia going to be like? Is there any possibility of changes in
Russia's policy in the South Caucasus?

-   As I said, Russia and Georgia are getting closer through key figures in the Georgian opposition. The circumstances are such that there is a fever pitch in Georgian society and it is highly explosive. What

could be the detonator? For example, if Ukraine recognizes the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. If this happens, experts predict tough times for Georgia and Saakashvili. And the Kyrgyzstan scenario is quite possible. It is early to say but I think anyway a new figure to replace Saakashvili will be the start of changes. It is another question who and how will replace the current president of Georgia but it is obvious that the tools of resetting Russian and Georgian relations are linked to a change of leader. And the question of the so-called "Finlandization" of Georgia will be appropriate only after that. At the moment Russia is not interested in revolution as a way of seeing change to avoid the recriminations which were put forward in the Kyrgyzstan case. And definitely the policy will be "whoever, but not Saakashvili". So far Russia is watching closely what happens in Georgia, but is biding its time.
-       And what can you say about the recent opening of Abkhazia's
embassy in Moscow?
-       It is a good tactical step by Russia which shows the legitimacy of accepting the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Maybe the Russian leaders think it will push other countries to accept the
independence of these territories which will make shaky the positions
of the current government of Georgia and give other trump cards to the
opposition. It can also be a bridge for Ukraine to accept the independence
of Abkhazia and South Ossetia after the Yanukovych recent statement that the
UN should draw up single criteria in the issue of Kosovo and Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Maybe it is also a sign for Obama's administration.