Moscow mediates Karabakh conflict again

President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev is starting the next round of mediatory diplomatic efforts on a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. By turns he will meet the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents, Ilham Aliyev and Serge Sargsyan. After the failure of the meeting in Kazan, where the sides didn’t sign the basic principles of a settlement of the Karabakh problem, Medvedev will try to find new arguments for motivating the South Caucasian leaders to reach a compromise. He prepared a bridgehead for a new diplomatic attack at the long-standing conflict. Earlier, he sent messages to Baku and Yerevan, and received responses within a short period of time. Now it is time for direct dialogue. On the 9th of August the Russian president will meet Aliyev in Sochi, and on August 12-13 he will meet Sargsyan at an informal summit of the CSTO.

Experts from Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey commented for Vestnik Kavkaza on the meetings and expectations of new efforts by Medvedev.

Ismail Agakishiyev, the head of the Centre for Caucasus Studies under the Russian State University for Humanities (Moscow):

The meeting in Kazan didn’t bring the expected result. After the summit, some people began to doubt whether Russia is able to settle the Karabakh conflict and come to some result or not. However, Moscow aims to be a referee in this conflict settlement. As for the format of by-turns meetings, I think the key is that invitations were sent earlier to both South Caucasian capitals and responses for them were different. As far as I know, Ilham Aliyev agreed with the Russian leader, whereas Serge Sargsyan’s answer was not clear. That is why Medvedev will meet Aliyev first, as he is closer to effectiveness, and some undiscussed issues remain. And only after that will a round of negotiations with Sargsyan be held.

As for expectations from the meeting, I think the country, which has managed to play the role of effective arbiter, despite the failure to sign a document in Kazan, will accrue great importance in the big region of the South Caucasus. This concerns Georgia and South Ossetia and Abkhazia, as we understand that the situation there is indefinite and will develop somehow.

Returning to Karabakh and the sides’ positions, Azerbaijan relies on Russia rather than on Turkey, Europe or America. All the steps taken by Baku prove that it is acting as a strategic partner of Moscow and expects a fair solution of the problem. As for Armenia, the situation is different here. We should remember that the conflict started from Yerevan. The first ethnic cleansing of Azerbaijanis was held in Armenia, who fled from Zangezure and other regions of present-day Armenia. This is forgotten today, and few people speak about it. Furthermore, it is the Armenian army that is violating the sovereignty of Azerbaijan and is occupying Azeri territories, and I don’t mean Nagorno-Karabakh. Yerevan itself is to blame for Armenia’s current problems, for example, the economic blockade and the difficult economic situation in the country. Armenia has never demonstrated a reasonable position, except in the period when it was headed by Ter-Petrosyan and Demirchyan, who were ready to meet Azerbaijan halfway and sign a peace treaty. However, Ter-Petrosyan was deposed, and Demirchyan lost his life. That is why Armenia’s current position has no future and doesn’t meet the interests of Armenia itself.

Yerevan often says that Russia has strategic partners, but Armenia is more important, as it is a strategic ally. After this round of negotiations it will be clear whether Armenia really perceives Russia as a strategic ally or not. If Armenia compromises and listens to their Russian friends, it will bring political points for Russia, and it will improve its position in the region. That’s what a real ally has to do.

This is a crucial moment. Is Armenia sincere, or just expecting new cheap credits from Moscow? If Russian diplomatic efforts fail, its rivals in Washington and Brussels will come and take the initiative, imposing their rules on the South Caucasus.

The Armenian authorities should be sincere with their people too. They shouldn’t act by the will of the Armenian community living in West which doesn’t know about the real state of affairs in the country. Only under a combination of all these conditions can a breakthrough in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict be achieved.

Sergey Mikheev, general director of the Political Situation Centre (Moscow)

The format of meeting, including the President ofn Russia as a mediator, is explained by the fact that the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan cannot deal with each other directly. The recent meeting in Kazan showed the full ineffectiveness of the trilateralformat. I think that after that meeting the situation worsened and the forthcoming talks won’t be easy. It is too early to say what the result might be. I don’t think that the by-turns meetings will mean a “good-bye” from Medvedev and an end to Russian diplomatic efforts in settling the Karabakh conflict. I believe that the Russian president will try to encourage the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia into negotiations, even though a lot of efforts have been made. That is why, this time, Medvedev’s position will probably be stricter, as it is impossible to persuade indefinitely.

Alexander Iskandaryan, the head of the Caucasus Institute (Yerevan)

I consider that such a format of the meetings is caused by certain problems which appeared in Kazan. I’m sure that the trilateralformat will be restored, but in this case Russia, as a mediator, decided to conduct the meetings separately in order to prepare for the continuation of the negotiations.

Nothing special should be expected from these summits. However, the continuation of talks and maintaining of the status quo are positive moments, I think. After the war in August 2008, Russia became the main player in this field. Of course it has advantages, unlike two other co-chairs of the Minsk Group of the OSCE, France and the USA. The most effective format of working with sides is this one.

Rasim Musabekov, deputy of the Azerbaijani parliament, political scientist (Baku)

The by-turns meeting between Medvedev and the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia is caused by the fact that nothing positive is expected from the trilateralformat of meetings. I think these meetings are aimed at influencing Azerbaijan and Armenia, finding a compromise. In case it fails, then this format at least maintains an opportunity to continue talks and a peaceful diplomatic process in autumn. As far as I can see, this effort will be taken.

The second moment is that Russia relies a lot on Azerbaijan. Positive responses to many Russian calls depend on how much Russia will use its influence to make Armenian demands acceptable. If Russia fails to do so, Russia will lose some positive replies from Azerbaijan to its calls.

I don’t think the forthcoming meetings will be about goodbyes, not least because agenda of Azerbaijani-Russian relations is wider than the issue of the Karabakh conflict settlement. The meetings will continue. Azerbaijan has always cooperated with Russia, it cooperates and will do so. Moscow and Baku always have topics for discussion.

The other question is that, at the moment, a compromise between the sides is impossible. However, Medvedev’s decision to meet Aliyev and Sargsyan means that he hasn’t give up. Nevertheless, I don’t expect any progress in settlement of the conflict.

Togrul Ismail, associate professor of the International Affairs Department of the Turkish Economic University, political scientist (Ankara)

After the Kazan summit everyone was waiting for a breakthrough, but it didn’t bring any effectiveness, president of Russia Medvedev decided to make a new effort and revive the process of negotiations, taking the initiative into his own hands. Moreover, he demonstrates the political power and influence of Russia in the South Caucasus. I believe that the current tete-a-tete meetings with the presidents separately tell us about the will of Moscow to hear the sides’ positions one more time for the preparation of a new summit in the trilateralformat. Medvedev stated that any negotiations are better than war, and this is very important. In a settlement of the Karabakh conflict much depends on the geopolitical interests of Russia. Moreover, the countries went through a war and Armenia has occupied not only Nagorno-Karabakh, but also neighboring territories of Azerbaijan, ethnic cleansing took place. The difficulty of the negotiating process is in the fact that Yerevan is using the occupied territories as a trump card. Baku is ready for talks, notwithstanding its losses. Medvedev’s mission is difficult and protracted. Continuation of negotiations with Russian mediation means the presence of Russia in the region and its influence. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan depend on the Russian side. However, if no serious geopolitical changes take place in the region, Russia will have to solve the Karabakh issue to provide stability. Any renewal of military actions in the region is a direct threat to Russian interests, as it may lead to involving foreign players. Peaceful initiatives reduce such a threat and contribute to a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Yevgeny Krishtalev and Sergey Rekeda. Exclusively to VK.