Alexander Rahr: Crisis of liberal system emerges in the world

The well-known German political scientist and expert Alexander Rahrgave an interview to the head of the European office of Vestnik Kavkaza, Orkhan Sattarov. He touched on the full spectrum of political themes between Russia and the Caucasus, as well as basic geopolitical aspects of the current world. We publish the last part of the interview, devoted to the crisis of the liberal system, left ideas, democratization issues, regional conflicts and threats of the Arab spring, and the possibilities for new color revolutions in the region.

- Do you believe North Africa will become democratic?

- The point is not in my believing or not. The region should be studied, and an expert should present his opinion. However, I don’t know such experts. I am amazed by experts, who some time ago spoke about Islamic extremism in the Arab world, today say there is democracy in this region. I stopped reading their works. I don’t know how they can do such an analysis. It seems I have to study it by myself. I don’t think North Africa will be like Europe, I cannot imagine it. I’m afraid the reason that there couldn’t be democracy there is not the unpreparedness of the people, but their problems, which cannot be solved by democratic approaches. Lack of resources, terrible unemployment, no prospects for many young people. The economies of these countries are so underdeveloped that they do not provide people with opportunities. I’m afraid people will be disappointed with their country and become radical. Moreover, the West could lack the economic levers to help North Africa and the political will to do anything. In this case, radical elements will exist and increase their power. It always happens in history: black-white, black-white.

Certain sections of the population, the middle class there, will strive for democratic institutions, human rights, the fight against corruption. So I think there will be no return to the past. Many people believe that armies will take over in all these states, like in the 50s. I don’t think this will happen.

- Do you think the Arab spring can reach the Caucasus? First of all, the South Caucasus, as the North Caucasus is Russian.

- I thought about it. Nobody knows. It is difficult to imagine. I think the people of the former Soviet Union space are vaccinated against revolutions. The orange revolution wasn’t a real revolution, as it appears now. People forgot about it successfully, because they went through the 90s. I’m not an expert, but I don’t believe that revolution will happen in Georgia, for example. I think the people of the former Soviet Union space do not want revolutions. They came through greater stresses: the 90s.

Of course, there are people who want to change the situation dramatically. However, the life of most of population is stable. At least, their life is better than the life of the previous generation. And they don’t want to take a risk. If unfair actions in policy or corruption weigh down the balance, they will come out on demonstrations. However, it is the last resort. Georgia has a safety factor. As for Kyrgyzstan, it appears the reason for the conflict was not social problems, but a fight between clans. I could be wrong, of course, but I think that’s how things go in the former Soviet Union space. Meanwhile, I must say that a crisis of the liberal system is emerging in the world. It is obvious. I think in the next 10-20 years the liberal model will weaken rather than improve. It is impossible for the whole world to live according to the principles of a liberal economic system and the rules of the WTO, as there are equal and unequal countries. Smart people in the West understand that liberalism, or freedom, policy of freedom, has reached its peak. As there are people who abuse this situation: banks and politicians.Freedom should be for people, first of all. And it should be freedom from something: freedom from authoritarian regimes, communism. People suffer for freedom and get it at last. However, when they live for several generations without an external enemy and don’t feel they have to fight for freedom, they begin abusing it: stealing, practicing corruption. Who is in office in the Western countries today? All these scandals with Berlusconi, Strauss-Kahn and many others. They are not examples of democracy or liberal morals. They are people who abuse freedom. And this tendency will become worse and worse.

This is the ideology of a liberal economy. The financial crisis is the first warning for humanity. The financial crisis was caused by people who belong to the more-and-more-for-me people. The rich profit from the financial crisis: they lost everything, but the state gave it back.to them. Few were bankrupted, it is the population who suffer from the crisis. The left idea vanished from the political arena 20 years ago, as communism failed and people became disappointed in it. Today Marx’s ideas, which are universal, should live. I don’t mean Leninism or Stalinism.There used to be people in Europe who thought about social models. Society cannot live like that when the rich have everything and people have nothing. If more and more poor people appear in the world, the middle class cannot extend. It will weaken, like in Europe and the US today. Only the top will remain, we will get a 19th century society. And then a leftist revolution will start again. These revolutions are quite possible.

- So history will be spirally twisted.

- I think so. Leftist ideas were not totally artificial. The Soviet Union launched Marxism artificially, by anti-human measures. The idea of equality characterizes people. People don’t want to accept the injustice, which will grow in the world: somebody will be provided with water, while somebody will be cut off from it. Somebody will gain more and more profit without sharing with others. In Russia this is seen today. In Azerbaijan a huge problem will appear in 30 years, when the very rich people will separate themselves from people with bodyguards. Today there are no social ideas or parties. People accept the situation because they want stability, because today it is better than it was earlier. But in 10-20 years time the situation will change. A new generation will grow up. In Azerbaijan, Russia and Kazakhstan young people will demand political influence, access to resources, to capital, and a fairer life. New leftist parties will appear. The world will see a revival of socialism. I hope it will happen in a civilized way, rather than in consolidation with Islamic extremism, which will fight for the destruction of the old world and build a totally new one.

- Do you think Islamic revolution is possible in Azerbaijan or its export from Iran?

- Today it is not possible, but we speak about injustice in the world. If Azerbaijan builds its society on unfair foundations, they should mind what they do. On the other hand, many envy Azerbaijan. Russia envies it, for example. Russia and Azerbaijan are lucky states. They have so many resources, which the world will need in the next 50 years at least. On the other hand, it is not good for them, as it closes the way for modernization and building a modern society. We should admit this, unfortunately. Azerbaijan can live on oil dollars, it doesn’t need taxes paid by people. The situation in Russia is the same. It is convenient for the state to maintain low tax rates and make an impression that people keep more money. However, people who pay taxes have rights to make political demands, and if people pay few, they are not allowed in political life, nobody cares about them, they have no influence.