Forecast: 2 million people to remain in Armenia by 2035

According to the Chairman of the Audit Chamber of Armenia Nairi Sargsyan, the population of Armenia is close to 3 million people today, but in the coming years and decades it may decrease several times, Sputnik Armenia reports.

In 10 years, the population of Armenia may decrease by 800 thousand people, there may be no Armenians left in the country at all in a quarter of a century, he believes.

"If these trends continue, there will be no Armenians left in the country in the next 25 years",

Sargsyan said.

The population is falling due to the fact that many citizens are leaving Armenia, and those who remain do not raise the demographics — the country has a low birth rate. In addition, the consequences of the Karabakh war also affect this situation.

The population is leaving Armenia
It should be noted that according to preliminary census data in Armenia, today the population is 2.93 million people, but the actual population is significantly lower, 2.64 million.

In 2023, 48 thousand citizens left Armenia irrevocably. The country's population is looking for opportunities to leave — either to Russia or to the USA with a green card. In 2024, the number of residents migrating from Armenia may be higher than last year, Sargsyan noted.

Birth rate in Armenia
The situation with the birth rate is difficult. With a natural reproduction threshold of 2.1, the official birth rate in the country is 1.6-1.7. In fact, it may be even lower.

"We assume that the indicator has decreased and fluctuates within the range of 1.4 - 1.5",

Head of the Audit Chamber of the Republic of Armenia said.

The birth rate and the outflow of population from the country are affected by the economic situation. The unemployment rate is high in Armenia.