Armenian-Turkish rapprochement postponed indefinitely

On August 22 the Turkish Grand National Assembly declared the protocols on the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations invalid. Apart from the protocols, the Turkish parliament rejected several hundred other draft laws. According to the internal statutes of the Parliament, any bills not approved during the four-year cycle of the Grand National Assembly will be deemed invalid. The term of the Turkish Parliament of the 23rd convocation finishes in August, therefore the unapproved documents, including the Armenian-Turkish protocols, are declared null and void.

The Armenian-Turkish protocols "On the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries and the development of bilateral contacts" were signed in Zurich  on 10 October 2009 by the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Turkey, Edward Nalbandian and Akhmet Davutoglu. The signing ceremony was attended by the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton,  the Foreign Ministers of Russia and France, Sergei Lavrov and Bernard Kouchner, as well as the then Secretary General of the Council of the European Union, Javier Solana. After the signing, the protocols were sent for ratification to the national parliaments in Armenia and Turkey, but neither of them has ratified the document.

Yerevan gave no official comment on the question of withdrawing the protocols from the agenda of the Turkish Parliament. Neither the president nor the Foreign Ministry made any statements or comments. The general reaction of politicians and political experts to this question developed in two possible directions.

Some politicians and experts saw it as the lack of respect from the Turkish side for the protocols and their message and they call for withdrawing the Armenian signature from it. Thus, one of the leaders of the Dashnaktsutiun party, Kiro Manoyan,  said that although Turkey explains the issue as being purely procedural issues, the attitude of Ankara is very humiliating for Armenia and speaks of the indifference of Turkey to the protocols, and therefore Armenia should withdraw its signature from this documents. Ruben Safrastyan, an orientalist and a member of the National Academy of Sciences of Armenia echoed this opinion: "The Turkish government shows no interest in normalization of relations with Armenia. Why then should we continue to show our interest? Now it makes absolutely no sense to keep the Armenian signature under the protocols." The board of the Ramkavar Liberal Party appealed to the authorities to declare the Armenian-Turkish protocols invalid.

On the other hand, some Armenian experts believe that the decision of the Turkish parliament is due purely to the technical procedure, which presupposes the annulations of unapproved bills and agreements. The Armenian-Turkish protocols will be withdrawn with 900 other bills and therefore this step "should not be regarded as  the machinations of Turkish diplomacy." Later, the government or any other entity with the right to legislative initiative may reintroduce the issue to the agenda of the new parliament. 

"The new Turkish Parliament will start its work this autumn. It is only after the approval of the agenda of the new parliament that any judgment can be passed, depending on  whether the protocol will be included or not," said Turkish expert Levon Hovsepian, adding that this situation is quite typical for Turkish political practices. For example, in connection with the 2002 elections, more than 1200 documents were withdrawn from the agenda, including a draft budget for 2003 and amendments to the Rules of Parliament.

Nevertheless, it is clear that the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations has been postponed indefinitely and lost its relevance. The warming of 2008, which started with the activation of contacts between NGOs in both countries and the so-called "football diplomacy", started to wane and sank into oblivion.

Yerevan is now much more occupied with internal problems. The number one problem for Armenian society, the same as three years ago, concerns the unsolved murders of March the 1st, 2008. The continuous political crisis is aggravated by the socio-economic situation. 

Turkey, in its turn, is focused more on the Syrian and Kurdish problems. In addition, according to the deputy head of the Oriental Studies department of Yerevan State University, Ruben Melkonyan, Turkey's role in the Middle East is increasing, it is becoming the mediator of the US in the region, therefore it can more easily ignore international pressure on the question of relations with Armenia. 

One cannot exclude that the protocols will return to the agenda of the Turkish parliament, but today it is difficult to say when Armenian-Turkish rapprochement will regain its significance.  

Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan, specially for Vestnik Kavkaza.