Imagination of the co-chairmen runs short

A meeting in Kazan between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan under the mediation of Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev was decisive. We could say that forecasts of many experts became true, but for one factor. The decisive moment didn’t mean a breakthrough in the negotiation process on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement. Two sides of the conflict, Armenia and Azerbaijan, come to the situation when there is nothing to discuss. Nobody talks about necessity of summits since that time. Even co-chairmen of the OSCE stopped being optimistic in the sphere of negotiations. The latest report of the mediators tells about their weakness. ANS Press reports that the co-chairs confirmed duty, defined by presidents Sarkozy, Obama and Medvedev in Deauville statement, to support the sides in achievement of agreement.

The co-chairs presented the strategy for next several months up to the meeting of the Ministers’ Council of the OSCE in Vilnius in December 2011. They will continue work with the sides, for defining their current contradictions, according to the Basic Principles. The co-chairs will suggest additional measures for strengthening of cease-fire regime, improvement of atmosphere in the region and promotion of understanding between nations of the region.

However, it is obvious that “defining their current contradictions, according to the Basic Principles” was possible within frameworks of separate meetings with Aliyev and Sargsyan in Warsaw. Presentation of the strategy with abstract and representing nothing formulations is imitation of mediation activity. Improvement of atmosphere in the region is hardly possible until about a million of Azerbaijani refuges wait for opportunity to come back home. The co-chairs should fight against Armenian aggression, rather than against its circumstances. At least they should publicly state on its existence.

It is sad that no meeting between Ilham Aliyev and Serge Sargsayn was held within the summit of the Eastern Partnership in Warsaw on September 29-30. According to official Baku, it was Armenia that rejected possibility of the meeting in Warsaw. According to the deputy head of foreign ties of the presidential administration of Azerbaijan, Novruz Mamedov, Armenia demonstrated destructive position again: “The EU planned to initiate meeting of presidents of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. We agreed to it. Unfortunately, Armenia rejected possibility of holding the meeting.” We have no reasons to doubted words of Mr. Mamedov, as the speech by President of Armenia at the General Assembly summit in New York was rather aggressive, and urging of the international society to recognize separatist regime in Nagorny Karabakh challenges possibility of peaceful process and compromise between two sides of the conflict.

There are objective factors of prevention the talks. First of all, mediation by Russian president led to deadlock after ten meetings of Sargsyan and Aliyev, initiated by Medvedev. Considering development of inner-political situation in Russia, it is hardly that mediation will continue in this process. Vladimir Putin, who will probably become next president of Russia, is another politician. We cannot expect he will exert his outpost to make him more flexible in the negotiations with Baku. Moreover, prospect of aggravation of competition for European gas market between Moscow and Baku appears. Many experts discuss interest of Russia in maintaining of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, for influencing energy policy of Azerbaijan. Even if mediation of Russia in the conflict remains, it will be only a way to show power of Russia in the region, as the expert from Baku Elhan Shakhinoglu said.

Secondly, the internal political situation is still very difficult in Yerevan. Armenian National Congress protests, Robert Kacheryan is discussed to be back to political life, weak position of Sargsyan, which prevents him from making difficult decisions in the sphere of the Karabakh conflict. However, there is no doubt that it is Armenia that should make difficult decisions, because the only way of progress in the negotiations and development of integration in the region is deoccupation of Azerbaijani territory around Nagorny Karabakh. But Armenia doesn’t do it. Furthermore, Yerevan prefers to miss out clear territorial claims to Azerbaijan. Some political scientists discuss annexation of Baku. In reality Armenia couldn’t promote Karabakh self-recognition in the international arena. During 17 years after signing the Bishkek protocol on ceasing fire none of the world states, including Armenia itself, has recognized independency of Nagorny Karabakh notwithstanding diplomatic efforts. Moreover, balance of forces is changing in favor of Azerbaijan. Economy and military power of Baku has grown for dozen times. The country has much more influence in the world in comparison with the 1990s. According to the international law, Nagorny Karabakh is still the territory of Azerbaijan. In this context, it will be big historic mistake of Azerbaijan to agree with annexation of its territory by Armenia, which suffers from economy and demography crisis. Even weaker Georgia, which has no chances to return Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the nearest future, will not recognize separatist entities.

Thus, peaceful negotiations came to principle question for both sides: the status of Nagorny Karabakh. In the context of uncompromised positions, imitation of mediation and peaceful process by the Minsk Group of the OSCE correlates with short term interests of both states. However, it reality situation is different. Balance is still shifting in favor of Baku, but Azerbaijan continues spending huge amounts of money for army, whereas it could spend it for other aims. In addition, the problem of refugees and occupation is relevant for Azerbaijan only. Armenia considers itself as a winner, but as a result of its aggressive policy now it isn’t involved in regional projects, suffers from economy crisis and migration from the country.

So the process of settlement of the Nagorny-Karabakh conflict is at the stage, when imitation of negotiations is a difficult task even for the co-chairs of the Minsk Group. Holding of next meetings of Aliyev and Sargsyan is pointless. Personal relations between two presidents are tensed too. Considering this factor and uncompromisable official positions, we can suppose that negotiations would be revived only after changing of the authorities in Armenia. It seems we will witness the situation no-war-no-peace in Karabakh for long time. Unfortunately, in this situation all sides are losers with missed opportunities.

Orkhan Sattarov. Head of the VK European bureau