Vladimir Yevseyev: Russia won’t give up on Bashar Assad

Last week was rich in important events: discussions on American radar deployment in Turkey, Russia and China vetoing the UN resolution on Syria, the first visit of French President Nicolas Sarkozy to the South Caucasus, new developments in the Turkish-Israeli conflict. Vladimir Yevseyev, Director of the Russian Center for Socio-Political Studies, agreed to comment on these events for VK.

- Iran expressed its concern about Turkey consenting to US radar deployment on its territory. What do you think, what consequences could an Iranian-Turkish confrontation have on a global scale?

- I believe that this radar is not the main destabilizing factor for Iranian-Turkish relations. The principal apple of discord is Syria. Two groups of states confront each other in this matter: one wants the immediate resignation of Assad and a change of government, and the regional leader of this group is Turkey, supported by the US and EU, as well as by Saudi Arabia. The other group comprises Iran and Russia, as well as China, though the latter’s involvement is not that active.

So the main problem is the state of affairs in Syria and not the anti-missile defense system. And the harsh statement made by Bashar Assad, when he promised to launch a missile attack on the Golan Heights if NATO resorts to military power against his regime, as well as to ask Hezbollah for help...

- But this statement was disprvoved…

- One can try to disprove anything one wants, but the fact is that such plans had been made. Of course, they are almost impossible to carry out. But Syria hasn’t forgotten about the destruction of their nuclear reactor and the occupation of the Golan Heights by Israel. Syria possesses quite a big missile arsenal, and it is rumored that Iran created a whole missile construction plant on Syrian soil.

It is a complicated situation for Russia. Moscow cannot give up on Bashar Assad. Such a step would complicate the position of Russia in Syria and then the whole Middle East. There are no alternatives. This forces Russia to be an unwilling ally of Iran.

I don’t believe that there will be any distinct confrontation, but the growth  tension will continue. Arms trafficking to opposition forces continues, supposedly through Iraq, probably financed by Saudi Arabia. Luckily, it has not resulted in inter-ethnic or inter-confessional conflict, but such a development is possible, and Kurds are also involved and they have their own interests. The situation is unstable and the fight for Syria will only get harder.

You know that the US and the EU introduced sanctions against Syria. The topic of an anti-missile defense shield is now not so urgent for Iran, but it is a factor in Turkish-Iranian rivalry for leadership in the region. This disputed influence zone comprises not only the Middle East, but North Africa as well. Apparently, in Africa Turkey’s positions are stronger than Iran’s.

The main catch of radar deployment is that now the information exchange between Russia and the USA loses its vital importance. It will be the second radar in the region (the first one being in Israel). So if we take disagreements on Syria and the total lack of progress in the negotiations on a common defense system creation, this radar may worsen the climate of US-Russian relations.

- This week, the French President visited the countries of the South Caucasus. Do you think that France wants to strengthen its position in the region, or is there some other hidden agenda here?

- First of all, France is a member of the OSCE Minsk Group for a Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement. Secondly, presidential campaigning is starting in France, so Sarkozy wants to show himself to be a capable politician who managed to push the Nagrno-Karabakh conflict settlement from a stalemate. Objectively, however, I don’t see how it’s possible. Sarkozy might contribute to the process of Russian-Georgian rapprochement, but I don’t know how exactly.

Armenia, however, is another matter  completely: France can’t interfere in its affairs with a guaranteed positive outcome. I believe Sarkozy’s trip is more of a PR-campaign than actual political initiative. Presently, the EU doesn’t possess enough resources to get involved in South Caucasian affairs.

Interview by Eugeniy Krishtalev, exclusively to VK