Escalation of isolation threatens Iran

The row between the USA and Iran could lead to unpredictable consequences for the countries of the Arabian Gulf. American special services detected an Iranian terrorist plot aimed at murder of the ambassador of Saudi Arabia in the US Adel al-Jubeir. The US minister of justice Erick Holder and the FBI director Robert Muller stated the Ameriacan special services discerned the plot, which was coordinated directly from Tehran by “elements of the Iranian government.” On September 29 in New York airport the American of Iranian origin, 56 year old Mansor Arabsiar was arrested. He was a mediator between the Iranian special services and the member of a Mexican drug cartel, who should kill the ambassador, according to the plan. However, the killer appeared to be an informer of the American Drug Enforcement Agency. President Obama was informed about potential plans on killing the ambassador in June. The authorities of Saudi Arabia were informed too. The arrested Arabsiar went on negotiations with unwitting sponsors and initiators of the planned murder. All telephone talks were recorded.

According to the investigation data, cousin of Arabsiar, Gulam Shakuri, who coordinated the plot from Tehran, is a top member of the elite subdivision of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, Al-Kuds. Iran agreed to pay $1.5 million for the murder of the Arab ambassador, 100 000 of which they transferred to a hidden FBI bank account. The initiators of the attempted act planned to explode the restaurant, where the ambassador always eats. Up to 100 people could be killed. Arabsiar admitted that they understood this moment, but killing of the ambassador was a priority.

Details of the operation are exciting and bring to mind James Bond movies. The FBI head Robert Muller said “despite the fact the story looks like a Hollywood movie, its consequences could be very real.”

Moreover, consequences can be very real for official Tehran. The head of the State Department of the USA Hillary Clinton announced new sanctions against Iran. The US wants to work actively with their partners all over the world to strengthen Iran’s international isolation. “We cannot agree with fact that foreign diplomats become objectives of attempts in our country,” Clinton said. President Obama accused the Iranian government of the plot and promised to launch new serious sanctions. However, he didn’t accuse the authorities of the country directly. “Even if the top management of Iran wasn’t aware of it, they are responsible anyway,” Obama emphasized. At the moment bank accounts of the top staff of the Iranian special services, who might be involved in the plot, are frozen.

Saudi Arabia reacted heavily by the statement of the foreign minister, the prince Turki Al-Fayzala. “We will bring Iran to account for all actions against us… Each Tehran action will cause relevant reaction,” the Saudi prince said. The head of the GB foreign ministry William Hug stated his country together with the USA, the EU and Saudi Arabia will develop relevant reaction at Iran’s actions.

Official Iran denies all accusations and states on the next scenario developed by the US for rekindling of war. The former president of the country Muhammad Hatami considers that the administration of the White House decided to carry out this trick in the context of coming elections, in which democrats’ chances are doubtful. To tell the truth, elections version is not convincing, as they will take place only in late 2012. Separate successful operations cannot improve the current president’s rating for long term. For example, despite its grandness and smart PR campaign, killing of the top terrorist Osama Ben Laden wasn’t effective in increasing Obama’s rating.

Nevertheless, very poor planning of the operation by the elite subdivision of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard seems to be odd too. Even representatives of the US administration note that they expected more professional work of the Iranian special services. However, we can believe in reality of the Iranian scenario, as there are many other examples of non-professional special agents acting in the US: Anna Chapman, for example. In addition, some experts remind us about the explosion in Mikonos restaurant in Berlin, which was committed by the Iranian agents for killing of one of Iranian political migrants.

At the moment analysts try to answer the question how new sanctions against Iran will influence economy situation in the world. Many experts believe that the US will hardly strengthen sanctions against Iranian energy sector. It can cause growth of international oil prices. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia could stabilize them. At the moment it is difficult to judge where the killer scandal will lead the region, but it is obvious that already tense relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia to become worse. These two countries are rivals in leadership in the region, and religious factor is of high importance here.

In this context, discerning of the Iranian plot is a good opportunity for the US to make another successful move against its biggest enemy in the region.

Orkhan Sattarov, exclusively to VK