Passions flare in Caspian region again

Baku prepares for unexpected events in Caspian region
US officials have started frequenting Azerbaijan once again. Richard Morningstar, the US special envoy for Eurasian energy issues, a prominent expert who has been dealing with the South Caucasus since the Clinton era, made another trip to Baku. Ray Maybas, the US Navy secretary also visited Baku on November 20-21, in order to discuss security issues with high-ranking Azerbaijani officials.

There is no doubt that Mr Morningstar’s visit to Baku was a success. According to the ‘Turan’ media-agency, Mr Morningstar and the Azerbaijani President discussed issues of gas transportation via the ‘Southern Route’, as well as some alternative routes. “We reached total agreement on all energy issues,” the special envoy told journalists in Baku. “As for the Nabucco project, the US will continue to support it. The realization of this project would be a great strategic breakthrough for us. It is possible that US banks will invest in this project,” he added.

Mr Morningstar also expressed his support for the project of the Trans-Caspian pipeline that will connect Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and the EU. Russia and Iran stand against this project, but Mr Morningstar didn’t make any comments in this regard. However, it is hard to believe that Washington is unaware of this resentment; the US simply chose to ignore it.

As the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton told the APA media agency in an exclusive interview, the EU doesn’t view Russia’s position on the Trans-Caspian pipeline construction as a decisive one. However, she stressed that this project is not aimed against any particular state; it is just an arrangement between gas suppliers and gas consumers. “The EU looks forward towards broadening our cooperation with Russia,” Baroness Ashton added. She also noted that the EU attributes higher priority to the “Southern Route” project.

Catherine Ashton visited Azerbaijan recently and, despite the fact that she expressed concern about the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, as well as about the general state of human rights, this was not the key topic of her agenda. Energy supply issues were the top priority of her visit. According to Azerbaijan’s foreign minister, the EU wants to purchase Azerbaijani gas, and that is why possible transport routes had to be discussed.

It seems that the intensification of the Western states' activity in the Caspian region is becoming a general trend. As a German expert, Hoeve Halbach, told our VK correspondent, the EU mobilized all its efforts in order to fulfil the “Southern Route” and the “Nabucco” projects.

The recent agreement between Azerbaijan and Turkey on oil and gas prices became the catalyst for the new political and economic US strategy regarding the South Caucasian region. It is true that Turkey and Azerbaijan reached this compromise not without the help of the USA. And the ‘Trans-Caspian route” project is on the list of the United States most urgent priorities in the region. This project would allow Europe to purchase not only Azerbaijani, but Turkmen gas as well, and it would change the balance of power in Central Asia: before that, Russia was the only alternative to Azerbaijan as far as the purchase of energy resources by Europe was concerned. In addition, this project could also help ‘Nabucco’ to operate at full capacity.

Iran won’t offer its energy resources to the Western world any time soon: it seems that its current isolation will last for a long time. Besides, the current crisis might trigger long-term political instability in the Islamic Republic. Another issue is pipeline security due to the Kurdish problem. Therefore the US sees only two stable alternatives to Russian gas: Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, which has the 4th largest gas resources in the world. And Turkmenistan itself is extremely interested in the diversification of its markets to circumvent its unprofitable contracts with Russia’s “Gazprom”.

The fact that such projects trouble Russia and Iran is easy to understand: the official reason for it is the ecological situation, but in fact Moscow and Tehran dread the increase of Western influence in Central Asia. We can only guess how far these states are prepared to go to prevent this project from being implemented. It is possible that the visit of the US Navy secretary to Baku is connected with Azerbaijan’s concerns for its security, taking the troubled nature of its relations with Iran into account. Azerbaijan never favors a conflict policy, but some experts say that Iran has crossed the line, and Baku has no other choice but to prepare for the worst. Azerbaijan cherishes its independence, and that is why it is so apprehensive about any attempts to submit its political course to Moscow or Tehran.

Orkhan Sattarov, exclusively to VK