Who do Russians want to be friends with?

This year is the 20th anniversary of the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Many people are speaking about reconstruction of ties between the former Soviet republics. On November 15th the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center presented the results of the annual research into which countries are considered by Russians to be reliable partners of Russia, and how the residents of Russia, the CIS and Baltic countries see the idea of integration in the space of the former Soviet Union.

During the press conference “Who do Russians want to be friends with?” Valery Fedotov, general director of the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center, presented the results of the opinion polling. The opinion research was conducted in Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan and Lithuania. In each country the poll was conducted through all-national representation sampling. From 1000 to 1600 people were interviewed.

42% respondents from Russia considered Kazakhstan to be the most successful and stable country out of the 14 former Soviet republics. Second place is taken by Belarus, with 35%. And third place is taken by Ukraine with worse results, only 17%. Then a big gap comes, and Armenia and Azerbaijan get 9% each. As for Moldova, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, these countries are not thought to be either stable or successful.

Who are the most reliable partners for Russia in the world arena? Again Kazakhstan took first place with 42%, Belarus follows it with 36% and third place is taken by Ukraine, with 15%. Fourth place is taken by Armenia with 7% and Azerbaijan gained 5%. The rest took from 1 to 3%.

Valery Fedorov said that post-Soviet institutions are working in the countries poorly and trust is low. That is why attention is focused on individuals, the leaders of these countries. Most of them took their posts long ago, and Russians have had an opportunity to form their views on them. The leader in the ratings is the president of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev (37%), the second place is taken by the president of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko (28%), third is the president of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovich (12%). Then Ilham Aliyev and Serge Sargsyan come. So the tendency is the same in all three questions. The leader is Kazakhstan (37-42%), then Belarus and Ukraine. The top five also includes Armenia and Azerbaijan, but the gap is serious.

As for integration in former Soviet space, there was an answer that no ties should be reconstructed, but this position is not popular among Russians. Only 8% supported it. 10% of respondents want to establish the European Union model: a Eurasian economic union with a common labor market, capital and service market, and currency. A more popular variant is forming a Customs Union with vanishing internal customs barriers between them, i.e. a light version of integration (15% of respondents). And reconstruction of the former USSR based on equal rights and without the Communist Party is quite popular, with 23%.

The most popular position was that there should be ties, but the same as with France or the USA, for example, i.e. common trade and cultural relations like with any other foreign countries. This point of view is supported by 34% of respondents.

The view that Russia should have relations with the former Soviet republics like with other countries of the world is characterized by significant age differentiation. In the oldest age group (60 years and more) only 28% think so. And in the youngest group – 38%. In the youngest group (from 18 to 24 years) 40% of respondents support integration. In the oldest age group popularity becomes a tendency, with 55% standing for various forms of integration.

In Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan and Lithuania the same opinion research was conducted. The question is the same: whether we should integrate and, if yes, in what form. There are three variants. The first is common relations without integration. This form is most popular in Lithuania. 52% of respondents support this form of relations, as Lithuania is a member of the EU and NATO. In Russia – 34%, in the other three countries – from 23% to 26%. An alternative point of view is that no ties should be reconstructed. 39% think that we shouldn’t return to the USSR, as well as forward to integration. In other countries this point of view is not popular. And various forms of integration are supported by 48% of Russians, 67% of Kyrgyz citizens - the largest, and in Belarus 62% support integration. In Azerbaijan and Lithuania – 24% and 26%. Thus, in Azerbaijan and Lithuania society is polarized, some are against any integration, but there are people who support integration. In Russia 42% of people think that integration is useless. That is a significant part of our citizens and, if we want to carry out any integration projects, they should be taken into consideration. Belarus and Kyrgyzstan see integration most positively. They are a firm platform for integration.

The next question is what forms of integration are the most popular in each country. The deepest form of integration, almost a united state, is supported in Russia and Kyrgyzstan (23% and 24%). The Customs Union is supported mainly in Kyrgyzstan and Belarus (21% each). And the Eurasian Economic Union is more popular in Belarus and Kyrgyzstan (22% each), Azerbaijan – 16%, Russia – 10% and Lithuania – 7%.

To sum up, the number of supporters of integration in various formats varies from 25% to 65%. Two countries - Belarus and Kyrgyzstan - are more committed to integration, followed by Russia, while in Lithuania and Azerbaijan a minority of the population supports integration.

Results of the research and prospects of various formats of integration in the former Soviet space were discussed by Alexei Vlasov, the editor-in-chief of Vestnik Kavkaza, and Nikolai Kuzmin, the political scientist.

Alexei Vlasov thinks that a great role in the stable popularity of the president of Azerbaijan in Russia is that the middle-aged and older generations remember his father, Heydar Aliyev. Funds are working actively as well: the Heydar Aliyev Fund and the Azerbaijani Youth Union of Russia. There are instruments of work of the media structures and non-governmental organizations, which enables maintaining a stable interest of Azerbaijan in Russia. And this is very good.

Vlasov underlined that the question sounded like reconstruction of ties between the countries of the former Soviet Union, and it didn’t concern reconstruction of integration with Russia. For example, relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia are very tense. At the moment, unfortunately, integration between these South Caucasian states is impossible. That is why respondents, answering this question, were bearing in mind not a Russian vector of Azerbaijani foreign policy, but the objective reality, which was formed after the well-known events. Many people in Azerbaijan stand for close and effective cooperation with Russia. At the same time, many people support ideas of Turkic integration with Kazakhstan and other countries of Central Asia.

Nikolai Kuzmin agreed with Alexei Vlasov. However, he emphasized that it is not strictly necessary to use a Eurasian format for cooperation between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. The Caspian format is very important for Azerbaijan. Russia and Kazakhstan participate in it, while conflict side Armenia doesn’t. According to the political scientist, Azerbaijan would never be a member of the EurAsEC, because Armenia is a member of the EurAsEC. This is the main obstacle, it is political, not economic. There are some other ways. Eurasian integration is based on the EurAsEC platform.

In Russia there are supporters of Eurasian ideas, and in Kazakhstan there are supporters of Slavic-Turkic integration ideas. The spaces of these two integration ideas intercross, they don’t coincide, but common ideology and a basis for integration is obvious. However, the ideology of cooperation is more important than the format of cooperation. If any format is ineffective, we shouldn’t reject the idea of cooperation.

VK