Moscow, Baku and Washington in context of multi-vectored policy. Part 2.

RIA Novosti media agency hosted a press conference dedicated to the theme: “Russia, Azerbaijan, USA in the context of the multi-vectored policy”, timed to the 20th anniversary of Azerbaijan’s independence. The issue was discussed by Russina, Azerbaijani and American experts: Sergey Mikheyev, the head of the Caspian Partnership Institute, Ajar Kurtov, the chief editor of the “Problems of national strategy” magazine, ex-CIA adviser Poll Goeble, the vice- of the Azerbaijani Academy of Diplomacy Fariz Ismailidze and the chairman of the Azerbaijani US-graduates association, Djeykhun Kyaramov. 

- No one, neither Russia, nor America, nor the EU, is interested in instability in the region. On the contrary, it should be stable and secure, but unfortunately the Caucasus isn’t. However, even the international mediatory efforts can’t bring an end to the so-called ‘frozen conflicts’ of the South Caucasus. Why is that?

Ajar Kurtov (Moscow)

Our American colleague mentioned a truly important thing: geography changes less rapidly than politics. So the Caspian Sea doesn’t change its shape. Well, in fact that’s not entirely so: the level of water is shifting, some lands get washed away, others become dry. But that’s not the point. Despite what our colleague from Baku said, I think it’s Azerbaijan’s destiny to be a point where Western and Eastern civilizations meet. It’s the destiny of all South Caucasian countries. There will always be tension and Azerbaijan’s oil only increases this tension. The oil isn’t so valuable as the possibilities to construct pipelines is. And these pipelines have to go through lands connected to the ‘frozen conflict’ zones. And these conflicts are a whole new story. Why can’t they get ‘unfrozen’? It’s not Russia’s or America’s fault. I often hear Azerbaijanis and Armenians say that it is, that the key to a peaceful solution is held in Moscow. They shift the responsibility onto Russia. Azerbaijanis believe that if Moscow wanted to pressure Armenia, it could have done so; Armenians have the directly opposite opinion. And no one wants to assume responsibility. Neither government wants to take the necessary but unpopular steps. The conflict began even before the collapse of the USSR, which we are de facto celebrating today. It started in the 80s, so not one, but two generations grew up in an atmosphere of hatred, being taught that our neighbor is an invader that occupied our territories. And that we have to get it back at any cost. The shooting war was stopped by the truce of 1994, but it also means that an arms race has been going on ever since. So both countries have been searching for foreign allies.

Sergey Mikheyev (Moscow)

I would agree that the North and the South Caucasus have always been conflict zones. Even before Russia conquered the Caucasus. Conflicts there were permanent. The problem has deep historic roots, so it should become the subject of a fundamental historic or culturological research. One doesn't only see Russia’s wars in Caucasian history. The wars started before Russia’s time. The reasons for that are so deep that they can’t be solved quickly. International mediation efforts are very important. But if the conflict parties’ positions are 100% incompatible, I’m afraid no mediator can help. And that’s the case in Nagorno-Karabakh, and in many other conflicts, particularly in the North Caucasus. Mediators just can’t find a way to deal with it. It would be great if the Americans or Europeans had some useful proposals, but the conflict is 20 years old… So if they have some propositions it’s high time they voiced them. Such ‘know-how’ would be priceless to us. But there are no mediators ready to offer it. Without the good will of the conflict parties no progress is possible, no matter who the mediators are. So I’m afraid it won’t be resolved any time soon. So the priority task is merely to prevent the conflict from breaking into a shooting war once again. Because such a war could destroy the whole South Caucasus.

Paul Goeble (Washington)

the USA, the Russian Federation and France are the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs. The group’s purpose is to restore the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. All three countries agree on that, Dmitry Medvedev said it during his meeting with the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents. Is this goal achievable? I think it is. And the second question. Of course, Baku is more important now than anyone could have thought. It became a full-weight state so to speak. And not only for its oil and gas reserves. Oil, gas and pipelines are not enough to make a country important. A lot depends on the political will of the country. Baku demonstrated an ability to maintain a balanced attitude towards all its partners. But the behavior of its neighbors is out of Baku’s control. But it is amazing how in the past few months Azerbaijan managed to increase its influence not only in the Muslim world, but, for example, in Latin America. It is possible that Azerbaijan is going to become the region’s leader. Azerbaijan is in a conflict zone, but, unlike other countries of the South Caucasus, tries to find a way out, and tries to restart its relations with other countries. So the Azerbaijani people can be rightfully proud of their country, and other states should be impressed too.

To be continued