Bidzina Ivanishvili: spurt or false start?

A new political era was opened in Georgia when multi-billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili declared his decision to join the ranks of the opposition and stop his financial support for President Saakashvili. Up until now this business shark didn’t take any active part in the country’s political life, but now everything has changed.

It is interesting to notice that this sensational announcement was made on the day of Vladimir Putin’s birthday. Some say that Ivanishvili is a conduit of the Kremlin’s influence, which makes this coincidence even more amusing: it is doubtful that the businessman would express his affection for the Russian government in such a crude way.

Some specific traits of Georgian social mentality might have also contributed to the pompous start of Ivanishvili’s political career. The feeling of instinctive mistrust towards rich people is alien to Georgian people. On the contrary, rich people easily win the sympathy of the people, as they serve as a living example of success that is, so Georgians believe, achievable for all who try hard enough.

Ivanishvili has spent 700 million dollars – that is one eighth of his fortune – on charity in Georgia. He has sponsored pensions for retired artistic and scientific figures, built churches, roads, schools, sporting facilities, theatres, etc. He has managed to win the sincere support of Georgian intellectuals, who traditionally play a considerable role in Georgian political life.

Ivanishvili’s somewhat mysterious image of a “Georgian Monte-Cristo” also plays into his hands: a simple Georgian boy who was born in a poor Imereti village had to leave his homeland for Russia, where he founded a bank, created his fortune of 5.5 billion dollars and played a noticeable part in the country’s economic history. Being one of the seven richest oligarchs of Russia, he financed Yeltsin’s election campaign in 1996. The businessman claims that it was he who persuaded Alexander Lebed to step aside and cede all votes in his favor to Yeltsin, thus assuring his victory over communist candidate Zyuganov.

It doesn’t matter if this is the absolute truth: the fact is that the Georgians are used to the great role that their compatriots have played in Russian politics since the 19th century. And this is yet another point for Ivanishvili.

Who’s the strongest?

Georgian authorities couldn’t overlook the appearance of such a strong rival. None of all the previous opposition leaders – neither ex-Defence Minister Okurashvili, nor ex-speaker Burdjanadze - can be compared to Ivanishvili as far as their potential influence is concerned.

Counter-measures were undertaken swiftly: Ivanishvili was stripped of his citizenship. No law was broken: Ivanishvili himself was careless enough to say that he has French citizenship – a third one, as he also had Russian and Georgian ones. In acquiring French citizenship he broke some of Georgia's rules – which automatically led to forfeiting his citizenship.

Clearly, this decision has a political motive, but it also fully corresponds to the country’s law. The only thing that Ivanishvili can do now is address the President of Georgia again to return his passport. It seems that the authorities wanted to show the people who is really the strongest in Georgia.

There is yet another example of such a demonstration: a collectors' car of the ‘Cartu’ bank owned by Ivanishvili was detained in Georgia. 2 million dollars and 1 million euros were confiscated under the pretext of money laundering suspicions. Ivanishvili again found himself helpless in this situation, and he also couldn’t explain why he had to physically transport such a huge amount of money from one corner of the city to another.

Also, Georgian police ordered to Ivanishvili’s bodyguards to be disarmed, as a foreign citizen doesn’t have a right to an armed escort. All three incidents were designed to show that the authorities are in no way scared of their new strong opponent and don’t feel intimidated by him.

If Ivanishvili doesn’t succeed in regaining Georgian citizenship, he won’t be able to participate in the elections. However, that doesn’t really matter for him: he has already announced that his party will be headed by one of his relatives. And if the party wins the 2012 elections, returning Ivanishvili’s civic rights will be a simple matter.

The competition will be fierce. Saakashvili is yet to announce whether he’ll stay in big politics after the end of his presidential term, but it is rumored that he is aiming for the Prime Ministerial chair. Other possible scenario is that of conservation of power in the hands of Saaakashvili’s team.

A second influential political center is being formed around Ivanishvili. His weakest point, however, is that he hasn’t yet offered any alternative program of the country’s development. And when the euphoria surrounding his appearance in the Georgian political arena passes, the voters will certainly notice that.

Ivanishvili’s Achilles heel

Is Ivanishvili’s political program really so different from that of Saakashvili's? Both politicians pose Georgia’s membership in NATO as the main security goal of their policy. But this desire to join NATO led to the current state of affairs in the country’s relations with Russia in the first place.

Ivanishvili criticizes Saakashvili’s actions in the August War, but he also stands for Georgian territorial integrity and wants to return Abkhazia and South Ossetia under Tbilisi’s control, expecting that Russia will soon get tired of supporting the breakaway republics – a rather naïve hope.

And as far as domestic policy is concerned, he chose ‘free democrats’ and ‘republicans’ as his allies – almost the same pro-Western powers that Saakashvili stakes on. And it is unlikely that these powers will abandon Saakashvili’s tough liberal reforms of the “Singapore model”, which are causing severe dissatisfaction among ordinary people. After all, it is the same political power that brought Saakashvili to power in 2003, and if it criticizes him now, it is only due to "a lack of decisiveness and radicalism in following the path of liberal reforms."

It is unlikely that the population will perceive Ivanishvili as an actual alternative to Saakashvili. It isn’t hard to guess that those disappointed in Saakashvili’s regime will rather choose not to vote at all. Those who support the current authorities will gladly vote for any member of Saakashvili’s team, and those who haven’t decided yet will study Ivanishvili’s program and will see that he doesn’t offer anything new compared to Saakashvili. And in such circumstances people are more likely to support the devil they know than embrace the unknown.

Georgy Kalatozishvili, exclusively to VK