After Kim Jong-Il

Author: VK

After the death of North Korean Leader Kim Jong-Il, power passed to his 27-year old son, Kim Jong-Un, who will become the third leader since the country was formed in 1949. South Korea mobilized its forces just in case and the US has constant negotiations with Seoul and Tokyo. North Korean partners Russia and China are also concerned about possible developments. Will North Korean internal and foreign policy change? Experts have discussed the problem at a round-table conference “Development of the situation on the Korean Peninsula. Possible scenarios”.

Georgy Kunadze, former Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, former Ambassador to South Korea

In the summer of 1994, when Kim Il-Sung died, the world community expected the start of a military conflict caused by the new leader to enforce his authority or reforms in modernization. The only change in North Korean policy was the conclusion of a framework agreement between North Korea and the US on the nuclear program. The agreement gave way to unprecedented benevolence towards North Korea. The project was most likely being prepared by Kim Il-Sung.

Kim Jong-Il had great experience in administrative work from the moment he took power, while Kim Jong-Un has absolutely no experience. Kim Jong-Un has spent lots of time in Western states and needs an understanding of the country he is now heading. But if he lacks intelligence, the country will keep drifting. There is unlikely to be any serious changes in North Korean policy in the near future. The launch of a low-range ballistic missile will be the only signal that North Korea will continue opposing the world.

We lack enough facts to forecast the situation, but we still have no expectations of a struggle for power in North Korea. There are still supporters of the former leader. The political elite of North Korea may recognize pluralism of views on various issues, but only to approach the chief. Kim Jong-Un will remain a regent for a long time, backed by more experienced political figures in the administration.

There is no information on opposition in North Korea. Thus, the scenario of an internal struggle for political power in the state is unlikely. Since the economy of North Korea is equivalent to its politics, the state may only hope for survival as long as the political regime exists. If North Korea starts reforms, then the state may be on the edge of political collapse. Even China and South Korea would not want such a scenario. If 23 million starving people become a single republic of Korea and have freedom of movement, then the many achievements of South Korea will be threatened. I hold the firm belief that despite everyone talking about uniting, everyone prefers to talk about it rather than expect it.

Alexander Vorontsov, head of the section for Korea and Mongolia of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences

After the death of Kim Il-Sung, everyone was confident that the regime of Kim Jong-Il would last for 2 years at best. After the collapse of its main ally and sponsor, the Soviet Union, North Korea had a severe crisis. The situation today is slightly better. North Korea was developing slowly in the first decade of the century, but sustainably. Nonetheless, there are no expectations for radical changes and reforms in the country. The successor will demonstrate devotion to his father’s legacy and the goals that were developed in internal and foreign policy. So there are reasons to believe that the country will continue a slow and sustainable development.

The death of Kim Jong-Il caused exultation in the US. Senator John McCain expressed his joy publicly, a candidate for president of the Republican Party Mitt Romney urged the US to initiate a policy of “regime change” in North Korea. The policy of “regime change” is a political reality supported by the Western publicity and cannot be ignored. For the most part, it involves mobilization of forces in neighboring states. The policy of “regime change” includes programs for reaction to emergency situations, such as the death of the leader. North Korea had controversies on the realization of economic reforms. Two years ago, North Korea had an attempt at denomination. When the world reacted negatively to the measure, the state authorities understood that the measure does not work and that repercussions would overwhelm positive results, and the reform was stopped after a few months.

Having such a bright example of the situation of interference of Western states in affairs of the Middle East, with the augmentation of an internal struggle for power, the political elite of North Korea will be consolidating around the new state leader. It understands that the matter of survival is, to a great degree, determined by unity and consolidation. The foreign political events of the last months would only encourage consolidation of the political elite around the leader or some common path.

Alexander Lukin, Director of the Center for Studies of Eastern Asia and the SCO of the Institute for International Studies of MGIMO

Today, North Korea fully depends on China, in terms of economics, because it lacks its own production sector. The main orientation of North Korea is China, but North Korea is very careful in its relations with the state. Nonetheless, they have a treaty of friendship and mutual defense. Kim Jong-Il has recently attempted to improve ties with Russia, to demonstrate that North Korea is not fully dependent on China.

North Korea cannot realize reforms, because it would force it to open its borders, which would result in its disappearance from the global geopolitical map. Hungry North Korean citizens would break the border and rush beyond. Thus, the situation in North Korea is a stalemate. It will stick to the old policy if it wants to keep the current regime.