Middle East-2012: threats increasing

By Orkhan Sattarov, the head of European bureau of VK

The end of 2011 saw a new round of the “Iranian crisis”. Iran has promised to block the Strait of Hormuz for oil tankers if Western countries impose sanctions concerning the exports of the Iranian oil. The statement was made by the vice-president of Iran Reza Rakhimi on December, 27. According to lenta.ru, referring to Rakhimi, his country aim exclusively at friendly relations with other countries. However, Western countries continue to pressurize Iran. If Western countries don't stop their aggressive policy concerning Tehran, Iran will  have to answer toughly, the vice-president has explained.

At the diplomatic level, the USA has coldly reacted to the threat expressed by Tehran. “Statements made by Iran concerning the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are an attempt to distract attention from the nuclear program,” the representative of the Department of State Mark Toner has declared at a briefing in Washington. The statement made by the command of the Fifth Fleet of the US Naval Forces, deployed in Bahrain is far more interesting – it was promised that they will prevent any obstacles to “navigation in the Strait of Hormuz". Free circulation of goods and services through the Strait of Hormuz is vitally important for regional and worldly well-being. Anyone who threatens free navigation in the international waters of the Strait opposes himself to the international community. “Navigation hampering is unacceptable", runs the statement of the Fifth fleet, Reuters reports.

Nevertheless the market has already reacted to the situation developing around the Strait of Hormuz. The world oil prices have grown by 2 %. So, in London the cost of barrel of the North Sea Brent has grown by 1, 31 $, having reached the point of 109, 27 $. Certainly, besides «the Iranian factor» the world oil prices were also influenced by the news that in the USA oil deposits considerably decreased. However that fact that the world market can loose 15 million of barrels per day ( daily amount of oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz) can have a serious impact  and make prices grow up to a record mark. As estimated by Merrill Lynch, a rise in oil prices may reach 40 %. At the same time, the Iranian rial has lost 15% to the dollar. According to the expectations of a floor trader, it is a clear sign that Iran shouldn’t expect favorable course of developments in the near future.

Threats of the Strait of Hormuz blockade, through which around 40 % of oil transported by sea in the world is transported, are considered another bluff of Ayatollahs’ regime by some analysts. These analysts suppose that the aim of the bluff is to prevent introduction of embargo on the Iranian oil from the EU. Such step has been discussed lobby in Brussels since late November – it has been officially announced by the head of French Ministry of Foreign Affairs Alain Juppé. We will remind that the representatives of Iran have then reacted rather nervously, although trying to put a brave face on a sorry business. They assured that the prospect of imposition of new sanctions does not frighten them seriously. So, the Iranian ambassador in Germany Ali Reza Attar, has declared that in case of imposition of embargo on the Iranian oil, oil prices will rise on a whole, and it will compensate economic losses of Iran. For EU, the main question was to find the alternative supplier - Saudi Arabia has expressed readiness to supply the former share of Iran in the European market almost immediately.

In these circumstances, threat to block the Strait of Hormuz is, according to Iran, a “double blow” for energy safety of the West. It is through the Strait of Hormuz that a significant amount of the oil is exported by the Persian Gulf States – those which are ready to compensate the shortage of oil, caused by situation around Iran, in the world. Moreover, Iran already has such experience. We will remind, that during the conflict with Iraq the Iranian Navy has already practiced the notorious “tanker war”. Besides huge heavy slow oil tankers, which are not quite maneuverable, especially taking into consideration the specifics of their inflammable cargo are ideal targets. Currently military maneuvers are being held in Iran.  Tactics of the "tanker war" are being worked out there and experts don't doubt - Iran is ready to take radical steps in order to influence the course of discussions in Brussels Certainly, if the Iranian Navy blocks the Strait of Hormuz, strike against the economy of the countries of Europe will be more than tangible. However such a step will certainly result not only in rise in oil prices, but also in escalation of tension in the region. In this case, The USA may react toughly.  The experience of the first “tanker war” is unequivocal - at the height of the hostilities oil tankers of the Gulf countries, primarily Kuwait, transported oil in dangerous waters under US flags and accompanied by American military escorts. Moreover, then the USA destroyed no less than one third of vessels of the Iranian Navy. Today, the Fifth Fleet of the US Navy is based in the Persian Gulf, and will be hardly able to behave as a passive observer.

Finally, oil monarchies of the Gulf, and first of all Saudi Arabia, will certainly react to the attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz. In days of the war between Iran and Iraq, few people dared to speak about military potential of these countries seriously. However, after the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait already the authorities of the countries realized that rich and defenseless unprotected oil exporters are too attractive as a target for military adventures. The reaction was quite predictable. It was armament. However, today the aggressive behavior of Iran perturbs Saudi Arabia no less, than the USA and Israel. Today's Riyadh possessing a considerable military and economic potential certainly won’t remain indifferent. The scandalous contract concerning the sale of 270 German military tanks Leopard-2 А7 to Saudi Arabia, approved by the German Bundestag in July 2011, multi-billion agreements with the USA concerning the strengthening of military aircraft forces, purchase of the American artillery -  all these measures show that oil monarchies arm again, and it is easy to guess - against whom. The main regional rival of Sunni pro-American Saudi Arabia is the isolated Shi'ite Iran. However the question whether Saudi Arabia will dare to confront Iran, the missiles of which are theoretically capable to destroy the oil infrastructure of the country, directly is still an open issue.

 However, it is logical to suppose that the Iranian realize that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is an extreme step and it is possible to take only if the confidence that this blockade "will escape punishment" and won't cause military operation from, for example, the Fifth fleet of the US Naval Forces, certainly fatal for the Iranian Navy, is absolute. The statement made by the command of the Fifth Fleet – is undoubtedly a serious signal.

 However, Iranian authorities are, apparently, sure that the USA won’t open second front on the eve of new presidential elections and against the background of problems in economy.  And threats multiplied by the unpredictable image of Iran are enough for Europeans to measure twice before imposing embargo on supplies of the Iranian oil.  Brussels will hardly count on prudence of Iran and won’t hurry with the expansion of sanctions. This step will surely be coordinated closely with the USA and Saudi Arabia. Otherwise, the military scenario becomes more plausible than the peaceful outcome of the crisis.

Nevertheless, having promised to block the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran has made a risky move in the Middle-Eastern game. The ball is at it’s vis-a-vis’s, and the way the West reacts to it, will in many respects define, whether 2012 will see  relative calmness around the Iranian scope problems, or emergence of a new battlefield in the most bustling region of the world – the Middle East. There is no sure-fire way by definition. It is too dangerous to let Iran "play for an aggravation" and to increase tension degree in the region. Responding with military force to the words and kindling a new conflict in the Persian Gulf would also be a bad step. And finally neither of them provides a solution to the Iranian crisis as that.

 Meanwhile, the West doesn't hurry with speaking about the military intervention and isn’t inclined to contemplating radical and broad-scale measures which would allow to “cut” the Iranian knot. But if Tehean continues to outwear patience of the world community and make the "war of nerves»" the number of supporters of the military solution to the Iranian problem will systematically grow. And at certain stage, the "critical mass" principle will work. If the crisis isn’t settled in a diplomatic way or Iran doesn’t undergo dramatic internal political shifts.