France could quit OSCE Minsk Group co-chair post

On December  22, 2011, the French National Assembly approved a bill making it illegal to publicly deny that the Armenian genocide had occurred. The law, still passing legal procedures, states that anyone denying the genocide is subject to a fine of 45,000 euro or a year of imprisonment.

The Economist has supposed that the frosting in the climate between the two countries was caused by France’s unwillingness to accept Turkey in the EU. France fears that it will decrease its own influence. 

VK expert Evgeny Krishtalev told how the adoption of the bill will influence ties between France, Turkey and Azerbaijan – the closest ally of Turkey, as well as France’s role of intermediary in Nagorno Karabakh conflict.   

 Concerning the adoption of the law, Krishtalev said: “The maneuver by the French MPs is rather curious for a research and expert opinion, at least because when there is a democracy, 45 people vote and a bill is adopted which can entail imprisonment or a fine of 45,000 euros causes at least bewilderment”.

 Regarding Turkish-Azerbaijani relations, the expert thinks that a further strengthening of this union is impossible because the union of Turkey and Azerbaijan has been sealed not only by gas and oil pipelines, but also by railways, trade relations and friendly ties.

Further strengthening can be used more as a diplomatic term, as a reference to the further rapprochement of the two countries. The union between Turkey and Azerbaijan exists and is successfully developing. The events of yesterday demonstrate that the two countries are capable of reaching agreements despite internal controversies and brotherly arguments, if one can call them this way. An agreement on construction of a gas pipeline has been signed, according to which Azerbaijan will finance 80 %, Turkey – 20 %. This demonstrates that relations between the two countries are moving on from the model of elder brother-younger brother which were possible at the beginning of the 1990s and reaching the level of partnership between two equally strong and powerful countries, the most powerful countries of the region in fact. The reaction to France's actions will be doubled in all international organizations. Turkey and Azerbaijan have always had similar points of view

The expert noticed that Turkey and Azerbaijan have always had similar points of view. In this regard, the main objective will be to deprive France of the position of co-chairman of the Minsk OSCE group. This law, even if it does not become ratified, it still needs to be reviewed by the Senate and president, the very attitude to the process makes one doubt the real potential of such mediation. Russia, despite its close relations with Armenia, which are much closer than in the case of France, is very accurate and diplomatic and does not allow itself such outbursts and demarches in the region, with Turkey and Azerbaijan.

The next question is: who will replace France in the Minsk group? The expert does not exclude the fact that Great Britain would be the most acceptable candidate. Great Britain is one of the direct partners of regional integration. It has direct interests in the region, not to mention BP, which has great importance in the region. It would be more likely to undertake the mission of a mediator in the region. It will feel more comfortable about it, and it will understand it better. British diplomats know the region very well and thus it will be easier for them. They will incorporate themselves into this system of relations much easier. The expert said that Germany has always been alienated from the resolution of this conflict. “Based on historical parallels, it feels much more comfortable dealing with Georgia than with Nagorno-Karabakh. Italy is very improbable. Italy has its own problems to cope with”. However, Krishtalev said that various alternatives are possible, but he rules out the possibility that someone from Asia will become a co-chair of the Minsk Group: “Turkey is part of this group, although it is not a co-chair, but there will be a lot of issues regarding Turkey's appointment as a co-chair, especially from the side of Armenia”.

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