A Crucial Year for Georgia

New Year's Day was celebrated in a special way. Of course, it doesn’t concern the old customs – in this case everything was traditionally: feast, Mravalzhamier song, and the decoration of table with sweet gozinaks. Julio Iglesias performed in Batumi on New Year's Eve. According to his producers, it was first time they’ve spent New Year Eve abroad.

However, along with “folk” New Year there is a notion of “political year.” And in this case 2012 could be a crucial year for Georgia. In autumn, the parliamentary elections will take place, and they may lead to a new civil rivalry. The elections in 2012 are much more important than the presidential elections in 2013, as the new constitution says that after presidential elections the country will turn into a parliamentary republic, and a new head of the state will have to cooperate with the super-powerful parliament. The winner of the parliamentary race in 2012 will take everything.

Rivals are well-matched: the current president, the leader of the ruling party United National Movement Mikhail Saakashvili and the richest Georgian in the world, billionaire Bidzina Avanishvili. Ivanishvili has already begun to form his political coalition from two unpopular but reputable pro-Western parties: Republicans of Berdzenishvili brothers and free democrats of Irakly Alasania. They have already got several million dollars for promotion during the election campaign from the billionaire. This rivalry will be tough.

Mikhail Saakashvili doesn’t want to leave. He won’t be president anymore, but can become Premier, Parliament’s Chairman or the leader of the party. Considering that in a parliamentary republic the institutional role of parties is great, the party position promises power, which is no less than power of president and prime-minister.

People in Georgia are discussing what exactly role the current president will choose, as in 2013 he will be only 46. There is no doubt that his full ouster is unreal. It is unreal because during his presidential terms the young reformers’ team of Saakashvili has been appointing representatives of their social, mental and age category to all key positions in the country. The elite will consider Bidzina Ivanishvili as a serious threat. Ivanishvili will rely not only on the opposition part of the society, but also on social segments (from intelligentsia to businessmen of Sevardnadze’s epoch), who remember taste of power and importance.

The rivals congratulated people with beginning of the new year. The speech by Ivanishvili looked like pre-election address of a potential leader of the country. “2012 will be a year of problems’ settlement and hopes’ fulfillment,” Ivanishvili stated. Of course, he meant that hopes would be fulfilled if he came to power. Ivanishvili also promised to establish a dignified state and wished happy a New Year to “Abkhazian and Ossetian brothers and all people, who support Georgian statehood.” This phrase is not really clear: whether the billionaire wished happy New Year only to Abkhazians and Ossetians, who support Georgian statehood, or he accepted that they won’t support this statehood under any circumstances, but decided to call them “brothers,” hinting that he doesn’t consider support of Georgian statehood as a crucial factor for brothers relations.

The current president pointed at other aspects. First time since 2003 he wished happy New Year to state officials. It is an interesting detail, as he is a politician, who has gained power striving against “sneaky bureaucracy.” It means the president understands that support of officials is a significant resource for any power. Saakashvili touched on the events of 2008 as well: “The aggressor thought that hehad destroyed us, but in recent years even in Russia itself the opinion that Georgia is an absolute leader of reforms’ conduction, is improving. They imitate us and compete with us. And it is the best answer to aggression against us.”

Georgy Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi. Exclusively to VK.