What kind of opposition is needed in Azerbaijan? Part 1

The Azerbaijani authorities couldn’t ignore the disturbing trends that have taken over the post-Soviet space: the influence of the ‘Arab spring’ and post-election instability in Russia. Presidential elections in Azerbaijan are due in 2013, so now is the time when the Azerbaijani government and the opposition have to formulate their strategies. Foreign powers - Russia, Turkey, the EU and the US - will monitor the developments in Azerbaijan closely.

For now, the governing party seems to be optimistic and able to evaluate the situation adequately. However, they seem to overestimate the significance of the external influence. According to the executive secretary of the Azerbaijani ruling party, the opposition has no support among the people of Azerbaijan and its partisans are mercenaries of foreign states.

However, the events that recently took place in Russia prove that such an optimistic attitude of the ruling party might not have an actual foundation, and the government has to take some real steps towards resolving existing problems that are being highlighted by the opposition, and not only accuse the opposition of working in the interests of a foreign power.

The problems are obvious: corruption, the rift between the poor and the rich, development of the regions. For now, the anti-corruption campaign has yielded no results. Azerbaijan still can’t gain high positions in international ratings, and there are now anti-corruption investigations against high-ranking businessmen and politicians – and that is a symptom of insufficient efforts in fighting corruption.
It would seem that Aliyev’s administration is now trying to forestall the opposition and win over all possible slogans of the opposition. The government declared that it is going to work out a development program for Azerbaijan till 2020 that would define the country’s main priorities for the next decade.

However, the government failed to anticipate the scenario in which, in 2013, the power will be challenged not by its traditional weak rivals, but by some oppositionists of the new blogger type – those that don’t discuss government programs and strategies, but offer the people simple and appealing slogans (not unlike those that brought thousands of people to the Moscow rallies).
To be continued

By Alexei Vlasov, exclusively to VK