Press review on Iran, Turkey and the Caucasus (January 1-5, 2012)

The Washington Post published several articles on Iran. “Iran’s growing state of desperation” says that ran is weak and getting weaker. Sanctions have pushed its economy into a nose-dive. The political system is fractured and fragmenting. Abroad, its closest ally and the regime of which it is almost the sole supporter — Syria — is itself crumbling. The Persian Gulf monarchies have banded together against Iran and shored up their relations with Washington. Last week, Saudi Arabia closed its largest-ever purchase of U.S. weaponry. Meanwhile, Europe is close to approving even more intense sanctions against Tehran. The Obama administration seems to have concluded that the Iranian regime is not ready or able to make a strategic reconciliation with the West. The regime is too divided and Khamenei, the ultimate authority, too ideologically rigid. So for now, Washington wants to build the pressure on Iran, in the hopes that it will force the regime into serious negotiations at some point.

The agency reported also that, worried that U.S. troops could stay in Afghanistan beyond 2014, Iran is mounting an aggressive campaign to fuel anti-American sentiment here and convince Afghan leaders that a robust, long-term security partnership with Washington would be counterproductive, Afghan officials and analysts say. The Iranian initiative involves cultivating closer relations with the Taliban, funding politicians and media outlets, and expanding cultural ties with its eastern neighbor. Although the effort has been underway for years, Iran has been moving with increased vigor in recent months because the United States and Afghanistan are negotiating a security agreement that could set the parameters for a U.S. troop presence here after 2014.

The New York Times published the article headlined “Gaza Premier in Turkey, in First Official Trip Abroad.” It says that Ismail Haniya, the Hamas prime minister of Gaza, who is making his first official trip abroad since his Islamist movement took over the Palestinian strip in 2007, sought Monday to strengthen ties with the Arab and Muslim world in the wake of regional uprisings that have produced a rise in Islamist political strength. Here in Turkey, where Mr. Haniya arrived after visiting Egypt and Sudan, he was quoted by the semiofficial Anatolian Agency on Monday as saying that “the Arab Spring is turning into an Islamic spring.” Turkey, ruled by the Islamic-based Justice and Development Party, has grown close to Hamas and has downgraded its relations with Israel.

The Guardian reported that European governments have agreed in principle to impose a ban on imports of oil from Iran, a potentially serious blow to the already unsteady Iranian economy and a significant escalation in the international pressure on the Tehran government. The formal agreement on the measures is due to be finalised by the next EU foreign ministers meeting on 30 January, but the sanctions will probably not take effect immediately. Europe is the second-biggest customer for Iranian crude after China, buying about 450,000 barrels out of a total of 2.6m barrels a day the country exports. Iran has shrugged off the threat, saying it can find new customers, but it will almost certainly have to sell its output at a discount to its remaining and new buyers.

The same information agency wrote that Iran announced that it had produced and tested its first fuel rod at the Tehran Research Reactor. It also claimed to have mastered the production of nuclear plates. The P5+1 could provide modern, safe and secure nuclear technology, fuel for the TRR and in the longer term, a more efficient research reactor. Iran could in turn relinquish its stock of enriched uranium. Iran and the P5+1 should also convert Iran's IR-40 heavy water reactor under construction in Arak to a more proliferation-proof light water research reactor. Such a reactor could use current 3.5 % enriched uranium stock as fuel material, an approach which has recently been demonstrated to be feasible.

The Turkish information agency Hurriyet reported that Russian and Iranian presidents say the Syrian crisis and other Mideast problems can only be settled through dialogue. President Dmitry Medvedev's office said he and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad agreed in a telephone call Thursday that regional issues, including the Syrian problem "can be solved exclusively by political methods, by encouraging a dialogue of all interested parties." The statement follows the Kremlin's rejection of a Western push for sanctions against Syria, where a government crackdown on a 9-month-old uprising has killed more than 5,000 people. Moscow has backed an Arab League plan that so far has failed to stop the violence. Ahmadinejad also welcomed Moscow's proposals for soothing international concerns over Iran's controversial nuclear program.