Kazakhstan 2011: mixed results

The year 2011 was emblematic for Kazakhstan in many ways: the country celebrated its 20th anniversary of independence and summed up all positive results and failures of these two decades. And of course it had to face some new challenges. The results of the 2011 are not unambiguous for Kazakh state and society, and this ambiguity will be illustrated by the following examples.

The beginning of the 2011 was marked by a popular referendum, initiated by 5 million signers, that granted President Nazarbayev the right to keep his position till 2020. At the same time, President decided to hold early presidential elections. The purpose of all these perturbations remained unclear for general public. It seems that Mr Nazarbayev was simply trying to legitimize his long rule and to settle the concerns of the Kazakh elite about possible candidature for succession of the presidency.

It is interesting to notice that the latest New Year’s presidential address to the people of Kazakhstan was unusually brief of the details on the year’s political progress and focused mostly on tasks for the following years.

The election campaign that was launched in February and ended on April, 4 was held without any surprises or scandals – for the first time in Kazakh recent history. Opposition political figures chose not to participate in it, depriving the campaigning of its intrigue. As a result, all reforms that were promised by the President in his inauguration speech have never been put to action and the seeming calmness turned into a whole series of new shocks.

First of all, religious extremism and terrorism reached an unseen level of intensity (the resonance suicide bombings in Aktubinsk and Taraz are just the top of the iceberg). A new terrorist organization – ‘The Soldiers of Khalifat’ – manifested itself last year. The state’s anti-terrorist system, on the other hand, showed all its weak points.

The state answered this new threat by strengthening its grip on religious and inter-confessional relations. An Agency for religious affairs was created in May and a new law on religious associations was issued in October. The Agency took up the ambitious task of promoting ‘moderate Islam’ in Kazakhstan; however, in this field working out a plan of actions seems far too simpler than implementing it.

The appearance of distinctly nationalistic trend added tension to the inter-ethnic relations in Kazakhstan, despite all government’s efforts to fight it – the petition of the ‘Defense of Independence’ movement against state status of the Russian language is a good example of that.
The lack of efforts to resolve acute social and economic problems led to the growth of protest public mood. A series of strikes was held by the workers of oil and gas industry in Mangistaun District from May to September. The protestors demanded stable salary and tolerable working conditions. However, the companies and the authorities assumed an uncompromising position. The use of force by the police resulted in polarization of the conflict. Nataliya Sokolova, worker syndicate layer, was sentences to 6 years of prison for ‘fomentation of social discord’, becoming yet another political convict in Kazakhstan.

These events intensified the competition between the power and the opposition: the Comunist party and the unregistered ‘Agla’ movement created a joint ‘popular front’. The authorities reacted by suspending the legal activity of the Communist Party for half a year thus preventing it from participating in early parliamentary elections. There is also a risk that the ‘Agla’ party would be dissolved as it will fail to participate in two elections at a row.

The government dissolved the Parliament on November, 16 – a step well expected by the experts (the President justified it by the possibility of another wave of global financial crisis and the necessity of more than one party participating in the Parliament); and the early parliamentary elections are to be held on January,15. This step indicates that other major changes in highest echelons of power are to be expected.
It seems that the next election campaign will prove to be much less calm and easy for the ruling party: the conflict in Mangistaun District remained unresolved, and led to the well-known tragic events in Janaozen. For the first time in Kazakh history, a state of emergency was declared in that town.

As for the political consequences of the Janaozen events, yet another Party (‘Rukhaniyat’, usually regarded as loyal to the existing regime) was excluded from the registration list by the Central Election Committee. The party was planning a national-oriented campaign, so it could have exploited the Janaozen incident – which he authorities couldn’t allow.

In the end, despite all the efforts of the government, the year 2011 proved to be a hard test for the social and political unity and stability. The Janaozen events turn out to be a point of no return – the government now has to take up real efficient measures to settle social problems. Kazakhstan needs cardinal political changes: liberalization, and the perfection of the state administrative system.

By Andrei Chebotarev, the head of the Topical Research Center ‘Alternative’