Persian Gulf: militarization goes on

The attention of the international community is still focused on the situation in Iran and around it, especially after the sides began to use a new political and economic weapon – oil. On the one hand, the Iranian economy depends on oil export, on the other hand, the world economy depends on oil prices. It changes the situation dramatically.

The statement of the French Foreign Ministry, which says the EU countries agreed on launching oil embargo against Iran (it is expected the decision will be made later this month), was voiced on the background of Tehran’s direct threats to block the Strait of Hormuz if Europe boycotts Iranian “black gold.” Recently the threats have found confirmation of Iranian military men.

We remind you that the vice-president of Iran Reza Rahimi was the first who stated this threat in the end of last year. Washington through the command of the Fifth Fleet of the US Navy made Iran understand that it won’t let it. The Strait of Hormuz is the most important oil artery of the world, oil export from oil monarchies of the Persian Gulf is transferred through the strait. At first it seemed Washington’s warning made Tehran change its tone. However, developments of recent days indicate that militarization in the Persian Gulf is enhancing. And it is an obvious mark that hopes for diplomatic settlement of the conflict are dying out. We think there are several events, which contribute to a serious preparation for a military scenario:

1)      Signing the 30-billion-dollar military contract between the US and Saudi Arabia, according to which Riyadh will get 84 fighter planes F-15SA and modernize 70 old fighter planes.

2)      Decision by German Bundestag on signing the contract on providing Saudi Arabia with 270 tanks.

3)      Decision by the US Congress on selling Oman 12 fighter planes F-16 Fighting Falcon Block 50.

4)      Wall Street Journal reports on prepared selling of 4900 laser-guided bombs to the UAE. It will enable destroying of targets of hard access in Iran, including nuclear facilities.

5)      Improvement of the missile defense system of the Arab monarchies, as their infrastructure is under direct threat of the Iranian missiles. Thus, in the end of last year the Defense Ministry of the US announced the deal on selling a huge amount of armaments to the UAE, i.e. missile defense systems. Emirates will get two batteries THAAD, 96 missiles and two radio-locators. It is first time the US sales THAAD to a foreign government, news.ru.co.il emphasizes. According to the resource, Pentagon is providing its Middle East allies with the missile defense systems very actively. Earlier the US signed the 1.7-billion-dollar contract with Saudi Arabia. According to it, America is obliged to modernize batteries Patriot for the oil monarchy’s army. Finally, Kuwait got 209 modernized Patriots from the USA.

The current wave of militarization in the Persian Gulf proves the tendency: the US is arming not Israel, but the Arab Muslim countries against Iran. The point is that Iran has many contradictions with the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, first of all with Saudi Arabia. We shouldn’t forget about the war between Iran and Iraq, in which Baghdad defended all-Arab interests. The reason for the war was the territorial conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Finally, the civil war in Yemen, in which Iran supports rebels-Shiahs, while Saudi Arabia supports the government, proves that Iranian-Arab rivalry is very strong in the region.

One more sign in favor of negative outcome of the crisis in the Persian Gulf is the oil plant in the UAE, which is building for transportation of oil by-passing the Strait of Hormuz. France Press reports that the pipeline will start functioning in June. Oil produced in the UAE will be transported through the pipeline to the oil terminals on the coast of the Oman Gulf. Capacity of the pipeline is 1.5 million barrels of oil every day.

Thus, the fact that tension in the Persian Gulf is dangerous is obvious. However, Tehran doesn’t want to find a compromise with West. Iran states on completion of the Fordo Complex for uranium enrichment. The new complex is secured better from a potential air attack than the plant near Natanz.

Iran doesn’t waste an opportunity to demonstrate its armament. After end of the war games in the Strait of Hormuz on January 2nd, during which long-range missiles were tested, Iran announced about next war games. According to Fars agency, they will take place in the Strait of Hormuz in February. Ali Fadavi, the head of the IRGC Navy, stated that the war games Major Prophet will take place in the Strait of Hormuz for the seventh time. However, these war games will be different; as they will take place right after Brussels will sign a document on launching oil embargo. There is a risk that the Iranian Navy will block the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, the Iranian authorities found themselves in a trap. In case of launching oil embargo Tehran will have to decide: to change its tone and back away or to block the Strait and cause tough reaction of the US and the states of the Gulf. Time for making the decision runs out. In the nearest future we will see an unexpected diplomatic step or internal political changes in Tehran. In other case the military scenario will become even more real.

Orkhan Sattarov. Exclusively to VK