Bakhruz Abdolvand: “Iran might be second Vietnam for the US”

A doctor of the Free University of Berlin, expert in the Caspian Region and the Central Asian states, Bakhruz Abdolvand, told VK about the situation around Iran.

- Mr. Abdolvan, what is the possible development of the situation around Iran? Do you think escalation of the conflict is possible?

- No, I don’t think the events will lead to a military conflict between the West and Iran. The reason is that the US cannot afford a new war with its economy in the state it is. The war against Iran will be greater than the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. The reality is that Iran is a regional power which is not easy to destroy. In the last 10 years the country experienced colossal industrialization. Due to Russian and Chinese support, Iran became a military power.

Conversely, the USA is wasted: they were pressed out of Iraq by Iran, and soon they will leave Afghanistan. The conflict in the Persian Gulf will lead to a regional war. I don’t think the US would like to participate in such war. History proves the USA can win minor sea wars due to its mobile Navy, like in Panama and Grenada. Continental wars, for example in Korea and Vietnam, are unsuccessful for America. Iraq demonstrated that initial occupation is only one win before the war itself, which will end in failure. Iran might be second Vietnam for the USA.

Another negative factor for the military conflict is that the war will lead to a drastic weakening of either the US or Iran. Geopolitical benefits will fall into hands of China and Russia, who are direct rivals of America. I don’t think Washington wants to make a gift to its opponents.

- What if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz?

- I think Iran won’t do it. The USA seems to be very careful. If the US attacks Iran, the Strait of Hormuz won’t be relevant. Retaliatory strikes will destroy all the oil and gas storages in the region which American and Western companies have invested in (Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan), and the world will face energy collapse.

- Could an air strike at Iranian nuclear facilities be effective?

- From a technical point of view, it would be difficult for the American Air Force to detect the location of Iranian facilities for uranium enrichment. The point is the centrifuges for uranium enrichment are compact and easily-transportable equipment, and it is not difficult to hide them in such a big country as Iran. American satellites showed their limited effectiveness in 1988, when the chief of the CIA Tennant got to learn about Indian nuclear tests from a radio program.

- So how should the West treat the Iranian nuclear program?

- Examples of Iraq, Libya and North Korea show that countries which reject nuclear programs, like Libya and Iraq, were attacked by the US. At the same time, North Korea attacked South Korea without any noticable reaction from Washington. Tehran’s behavior proves it wants to follow North Korea’s example. Iran strives to gain an opportunity for the creation of a nuclear weapon without direct testing of a bomb. Nuclear armament is a guarantee of security for Iran, i.e. it will never reject it, even in case of a war.

Moreover, the war would lead to the appearance of strong nationalist tendencies in Iranian society. One more consequence of the war would be improvement of conservative forces inside the society and consolidation of the Shiah religious communities of Iraq, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE and Lebanon. They all consider Iran as their religious homeland. Finally, the war threatens to lead to a Vietnamization of the Middle East.

As for how to treat Iran, history teaches us: with ambiguous correlation of forces, only a policy of giving and getting can be effective. Playing with fire, you can burn yourself. I would like to warn about the mistakes of underestimating Iran’s force. If a conventional war starts today, it will end no earlier than 25 years. It will damage the entire Middle East, the world economy, and US and Western influence. The war in Afghanistan has been going on for 12 years. Initially it seemed the Taliban was easy to destroy, but later it appeared the war cannot be won.

Interview by Orkhan Sattarov. Exclusively to VK