Upgrade of former Soviet space

Aleksey Vlasov, the general director of the Information Analysis Center on social-political processes in the former Soviet space is in the studio of Golos Rossii. Interview by Dmitry Kuklin.

Kuklin: We are summing up 2011 in the CIS countries. Even wider - in the countries of the former Soviet Union. Our guest is Aleksey Vlasov, the general director of the Information Analysis Center on social-political processes in the former Soviet space. Let’s start with the Common Eurasian Space, which was proposed by Premier Vladimir Putin. Is this idea relevant today? There were different reactions. Positive ones say that the countries and their leaders strive for integration. In contrary, some say it would be second USSR, an unviable structure. What is your opinion?

Vlasov: There are two different aspects. First is depth of the Eurasian project. It is 17-year-old. Nursultan Nazarbayev was first to propose it in 1994. Those days it was called the Concept of Practical Eurasianship. Later it found reflection in the Customs Union, EurAsEU, and on January 1st, 2012, the Common Economic Space began its operation. Upgrade by Vladimir Putin is that he suggested construction of a new level of integration – the Eurasian Economic Union. Recently I’ve met my colleagues from Belarus, and they told me journalists are not provided with such information. However, work on establishment of supranational bodies of the Union has great pace in Russia.

Kuklin: You give us inside information.

Vlasov: It has been already decided what country will delegate its ministers to what position. Major share is Russia, but niches for Kazakhstan and Belarus have been defined as well. And only several months were spent for it. It’s pretty fast for the former Soviet space.

Kuklin: Yes, but officially only Mr. Khristenko has headed the committee, isn’t it?

Vlasov: Yes, people, who will work under his management, have been defined, and functions in such directions as state purchasing, financing issues, and macroeconomy have been distributed. Prospect is well, the only lack is social appraisal of the Eurasian project. Nobody in Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus understands what it will bring to common citizens. All our leaders speak about macroeconomic indexes, which mean almost nothing to medium and minor business. Growth of GDP is nice, but how will we live by 2017? Information policy should be changed.

Kuklin: It’s like a difficult theorem proving. Everybody understands it is good, but doesn’t understand why the scientist got $1 million.

Vlasov: They don’t understand at all. It is about information presentation. It is a work for nearest prospect.

Kuklin: The Customs Union is working in full capacity since 2011. It was a breakthrough: shift from talks to real actions. A certain date was chosen, and everything was ready by the date.

Vlasov: On January 1st another stage began – the Common Economic Space. At the moment we see growth of turnover between three states. Secondly, Kyrgyzstan stated on its readiness to enter the Customs Union. This question is not easy, as 90% of Kyrgyzstan’s citizens’ income is formed by reexport of Chinese goods.

Kuklin: And we afraid of inflow of them?

Vlasov: At two biggest markets of Kyrgyzstan 80% of all products are of Chinese origin. Almazbek Atambayev will hardly solve the problem of replacing Chinese reexport by other sources of income for medium and minor business in three months. Protection policy of the Customs Union will make Chinese goods trading unprofitable.

However, there is a positive tendency. Our firms register business in Kazakhstan and begin working under logistic procedures – execution of sanitary control, fitocontrol at foreign borders of the Customs Union. Forming of a solid body is going on – Russian-Kazakhstani-Belarusian companies.

Kuklin: Let’s turn to Kyrgyzstan. It underwent many events: elections and new laws. The country is standing on a new path.

Vlasov: There is a permanent political crisis. We have witnessed triumph of Atambayev at the presidential elections, who was a pro-Russian candidate, the coalition in the parliament collapsed and a new speaker was elected. Moreover, the country is still clashed for north and south, and we have seen how the candidate from north, Atambayev, fought against two candidates of south, Madumarov and Tashiyev. Only in the context of forming the all-national agenda Kyrgzstan can surpass the crisis and begin stable development.

Kuklin: Let’s finish with the Asian theme and remember Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Initially Karimov prolonged his presidential term to keep power, now he cut it. Some experts think it means he says this term doesn’t concern him and now he can be next president, according to the new law, others think he is preparing a successor. Please, compare these points of view.

Vlasov: Nazarbayev and Karimov are concerned with the problem of a successor. In my opinion, Kazakhstan has more clear institutes of providing succession. In January 2012 early parliamentary elections will be held. New political forces will appear in the parliament along with the ruling party Nur Otan. I think it will be Ak Zhol, and functions of the parliament will be extended. Nazarbayev relies on institutes, which should provide not only his personal succession, bit succession for the whole policy of him during 20 years of independence. The main problem is that the country is shaking. Blasts in several cities, terrorist organization Soldiers of Caliphate… It seems Kazakhstan is tried to destabilize, as radical Islam is not common to Kazakh peoples. Where did it come from? Probably foreign forces are involved. In Uzbekistan a successor is hard to define. I think Karimov hasn’t decided yet, how he will do it. One thing is obvious – next presidents of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will have much less power than their predecessors. However, experts, who say Karimov might re-appoint himself, are right either. He will try to stay in power as long as possible, as after his resignation very serious problems in Fergana Valley might appear.