Tbilisi is waiting for war

The Foreign Ministry of Georgia urged the international community to pay attention to the plans of the Defense Ministry of Russia to conduct in the Caucasus region, including Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the strategic war games Kavkaz-2012. Georgian politicians are concerned with the  potential connection of the war games and a possible military conflict with Iran. Tbilisi worries that during the war between the USA, NATO and Iran, Moscow might revive military pressure on Georgia and carry out an overthrow operation in Tbilisi.

The head of the General Headquarters of Russian Armed Forces, Nikolay Makarov, announced the plans at the end of 2011. Soon after, the Foreign Ministry of Georgia stated these war games will have an unprecedented character: “Unlike previous years the war games will be held not only in the South Military Federal District of Russia, but also in Armenia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. All branches of the Armed Forces, Federal Security Service, the Ministry of Emergency Situations and the Federal Security Guard Service will take part in them. It is planned to use all intelligence and communication facilities – electronic, space, unmanned drones, and high-frequency weapon.” According to Georgian diplomats, “Russia provides abbreviated militarization of the occupied Georgian territories, develops military infrastructure and launches offensive armaments, trying to provoke permanent tension in Georgia and in the whole Black Sea region.”

The Foreign Ministry of Georgia addressed the international society and urged it to “pay attention to the fact that the foreign policy of Russia hasn’t changed. It continues aggressive activity, including demonstration of military force and provocations. Russia is a source of destabilization and negative events in the international arena.” The statement was announced during political and expert discussion of possible consequences of the war between the USA and Iran for Georgia. “In August 2008 Russia didn’t manage to overthrow the regime in Tbilisi and put a more loyal politician to power,” the independent political scientist Malkhaz Chachava told VK. “In the war begins in the Middle East, nobody would pay attention to Georgia and Russian activity in the South Caucasus. Moscow might use it.”

However, not all local experts agree with such pessimistic forecasts. “Let’s imagine the American-Iranian war began and Russia launched troops toward Tbilisi from South Ossetia. What would it achieve?” the political scientist Josef Tsintsadze said to VK. “Russia couldn’t carry out an overthrow operation in Georgia, as it has no placeman, who could head Tbilisi, and all serious Georgian politicians stand for integration with NATO and the EU. Thus, there is no sense for Russia to occupy whole Georgia.”

Some other experts think that Russia plans more delicate actions. “The Russian war games, which will reach culmination in case of a military campaign against Iran, might be aimed at blocking of communications rather than occupation of territories,” the political expert Nika Imanishvili told VK. “For example, Russia tries to show the world it doesn’t allow construction of a pipeline in the Caspian Sea and across the territory of Georgia. The wide-scaled war games will frighten investors, even if they planned to invest in tourism.”

The Georgian opposition thinks that the Russian Army prepares for preventing possible dislocation of the American Army on the territory of Georgia. One of the leaders of the National Assembly, Yelizbar Dzhavelidze, said that mini-hospitals, opened in regions of the country by Saakashvili every year, are supposed to be hospitals for American soldiers hurt in the Hormuz Starit.

The editor-in-chief of the military analysis magazine Arsenali, Irakly Aladashvili, told VK that “worries are reasonable. It should be noted that one of objectives in the war games is working the way out for supplying the 102nd Russian Military Base in Armenia. And the way passes across Georgia. There is no other variant. Moscow thinks that the military base is blocked, as Georgia forbade transportation of Russian armament through its territory.”

Nevertheless, despite all active discussions of a possible war, the ruling party is calm. “It is a fairy tale for faint hearted. We do not discuss such issues with electorate, as people are not interested in it. Even if the war begins, Russia would hardly dare to do anything, as in this case Moscow would seem to be Iran’s ally, which opens the second front,” one of the leaders of United National Movement, Mamuka Chedia told VK.

Georgy Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi. Exclusively to VK