Iranian surprise for Europe

When on January 23 in Brussels the EU states decided to launch the oil embargo against Iran, it was meant to be a part of sanctions against Tehran. The economic sanctions, according to European politicians, should begin their operation in six months – on the 1st of July 2012. By this moment, the EU plans to get rid entirely of Iranian oil on its market. Of course, the process will be staged: the importing countries will finish signed contracts.

The USA doesn’t hide its satisfaction. President Barak Obama welcomed the EU decision, emphasizing that “it shows unity of the international society, when it concerns a serious threat from the Iranian nuclear program.” At the same time, the US cut off the third major Iranian bank Tejarat from the American financing system. “The measures are aimed against the last access opportunity of Iran to the international financing system,” the state secretary of the Financing Ministry of the USA, David Coen, said.

The oil embargo by the EU has been actively lobbied by the United States. Europe thought that by 6 months major importers of Iranian oil – Greece, Spain and Italy, first of all, - would find alternative exporters of black gold. Of course, Saudi Arabia is one of favorites.

However, it appeared that Tehran doesn’t want to wait for the EU countries find other suppliers. Iran decided to “punish” Europe and take the lead. RIA Novosti, citing the Financial Times, reported that the Iranian PMs will probably adopt a bill on full cancel of oil export from Iran to the European states on Sunday, i.e. before the EU oil embargo against Iran will be launched. “If the bill is adopted, the government will be obliged to stop oil export to Europe before the EU launches the oil embargo against Iran,” the representative of the committee on energy in the Iranian parliament, Imada Husseini, said.

This step by the Iranian parliament can punch the distressful European economy hard, especially Greece, which is called a “bankrupt-state” openly. In this country one third of all oil import is from Iran. At the same time, the IMF warns about possible growth of oil prices by $20-30. Regarding consequences for Iran, contrary to popular belief on its economy dependence on the oil sector it should be noted that the country’s GDP consists of oil export revenues in 20% only. While oil export to Europe is 20% of the whole oil export of Iran. Thus, Iranian oil export to Europe is 4% of the country’s GDP. Of course, it is not little, but it is naive to think that Iran won’t be able to find alternative importers of its oil. By the way, import of Iranian oil grew by 30% in China by the end of 2011. It is obvious that Chinese developing economy will need Iranian oil in future, and its import will grow. Neither China nor India has intentions to launch the oil embargo against Iran.

Thus, in rivalry between the West and Iran the Islamic republic made an unexpected step, which puzzled the European countries. Moreover, in Syria the West cannot move forward as well. The Iranian ally Assad is sitting tight in the president’s chair, and his army has returned control of Duma, which was thought to be a center of rebels. It seems that one of major Western allies in the region, Turkey, dented enthusiasm of overthrowing Bashar Assad’s regime after negotiations with Tehran and Moscow.

Iran is not in a hurry to implement its threats on blocking the Hormuz Strait. It is a red line, which was drawn by Washington. To cross the line means starting a war in the region. Iran will suffer a lot, while the USA, weakened by wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, will sink in the economic crisis and lose its hegemony in the world. So the fragile status quo maintains. It is obvious that tension around Iran has reched a dangerous level, and the current unstable situation in the Persian Gulf has nothing in common with a lon-term stability. It is too early to recover breath.

Orkhan Sattarov. Exclusively to VK