Russia supports Syrian president

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Intelligence Chief Mikhail Fradkov are on a visit to Syria. They will meet President Bashar Assad in Damascus.

Russia and China vetoed the resolution of the UN Security Council containing demands for resignation of Assad. France said that the European Union would pass new sanctions against Syria. The US closed the diplomatic mission in Damascus, UK called its ambassador off for consultations.

Andrey Kazantsev, senior scientists of the Center for Euro-Atlantic Security of MGIMO of the Russian Foreign Ministry, noted that the situation in Syria is complicated due to international pressure for Assad’s resignation. The Arab League pressurizes as well. The Syrian president has good chances to keep power, unlike it was in Egypt. Assad has support of the Alawite minority.

The Christians support him as well, because Islamic attitude is strong among opposition. Christians and Alawites inhabit large cities, so Assad has good chances to keep control over them.

Visits of Lavrov and Fradkov may be a demonstration of international support. The UN votes show that China supports Syria, although not as much as Russia does.

Concerning Russian interests, Moscow has established ties with Syria back in the Soviet times with Bashar Assad’s father Hafez. Russia has a naval base in Syria and provides weapons. The two states have good economic and cultural ties, Kazantsev reminds.

The expert believes that Russia was disappointed with the situation in Libya, when it voted for the no-fly zone, which resulted in the US and EU switching the state regime. It turned out that Russia gained nothing from new contacts or economic relations. Russia lost its old ties. Russia may change its position on Syria if offered something worthy, Kazantsev goes on.

The situation in general is not very clear, the expert says. The Syrian government plans democratic reforms. Even free elections would not result in full change of the elite Russia has sustainable contacts with. Neither do free elections guarantee victory for opposition, Andrey Kazantsev concludes.