Georgia won't take part in the war against Iran

After the visit of the Georgian president to the US, the main topic for discussion was the information that, after discussing in the presence of journalists the prospects of Mikheil Saakashvili becoming Georgian prime-minister in 2013, behind closed doors the presidents of the states were actually discussing the possibility of Georgian participation in the war against Iran.

Nobody, except for a very small circle, knows whether the presidents indeed discussed this topic. Iran is not mentioned at all in any official press-release or public announcement. What is mentioned is “strengthening of military cooperation” and “cooperation in the security sphere considering the situation in the region”, but these phrases are just diplomatic figures of speech, there is nothing concrete in them. If we sum up the information from open sources, read the texts of the announcements and look at the geographical and political map of the region, we will conclude that the discussions about the participation of Georgian in a possible war against Iran is just a fantasy.

From a military point of view, the US does not really need a northern military deployment to attack Iran. American planes from aircraft carriers, as well as missiles from the air or submarines, can reach any point on the territory of Iran.

The editor-in-chief of the independent military-analytical journal “Arsenali”, Irakly Aladashvili, in an interview with “Vestnik Kavakaza”, pointed out the mere geographical reality: “Georgia does not have common border with Iran, neither does Georgian airspace. If the Americans decide to bomb the northern regions of Iran from the side of the South Caucasus, they will have to make agreements not only with Georgia but also with Armenia or Azerbaijan”.

The leadership of these two countries, that maintain difficult and complex, but generally neighborly relations with Iran, are unlikely to agree to attacks on Iran going through their territory. And this is not only about the threat from Tehran that Iran will “robustly hit the territory of those countries from which it will be attacked,” but in the long-term interest to keep good relations with a neighbor with a multi-million population, a country with big Armenian and Azeri communities that cannot even be called diasporas because the both Armenians and Azeris live on their native land. This is improbable and will at least require really tectonic shifts in the relations between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Iran, which are, despite the complexity of the current situation, very unlikely.

In addition, Irakly Aladishvili added that the airspace of the South Caucsus is almost fully controlled by the latest S-300 and BUK anti-missile defense systems of the Russian air defense. After 2008, the Russian army placed them not only in Armenia but also in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Will the US, should it have a need (which is unlikely), really send its airplanes through airspace that is in fact controlled by a third country? Especially a state with which the US really wants to avoid conflicts? The answer is clear.

Let us look now at the problem from another point of view: the Americans repeatedly stated that they want to create military bases on Georgian territory. They have stationary bases in Eastern Turkey. In addition, even since Clinton's times Washington takes into account Russian military and strategic influence in the region, and if Pentagon really wanted to create these additional aerodromes in Georgia and the appropriate infrastructure, it could have been done in the 1990s.

The logic of the military is different from the logic of the politicians. In addition, they are ever guided by a formal political correctness. Just a good example: immediately after the “five-day war”, the head of the military staff of Russia and the US met tête-à-tête in Helsinki, in a country which from the times of the cold war was believed to be a neutral territory between the influence zones of the two powerful blocs. Using that very logic, the Pentagon will not consider options of direct interference through the South Caucasus, at least without a preliminary agreement with the Russian military, while the chance of this agreement about Iran is non-existent.

Let us ask another question in this discourse: why would Georgia generally interfere in the big fight in the Middle East? What will it bring to the country from a pragmatic point of view, from the point of view of the security of the economy? Will it not increase the risks and the problems that the Georgian government is facing today? Iran is an historical neighbor of Georgia. It is a country where hundreds of thousands of Georgians live. In the times of Shah Abbas they arrived there not of their own free will, but now they live peacefully in Fereidan province and remember the land of their ancestors. In addition, Iran is an important trading partner of Georgia, especially in agriculture. Iran buys Georgian wool, and sheep husbandry is an important occupation for the thousands of inhabitants of Northern Georgia. And since the authorities are trying to develop tourism, it is important that after the introduction of flights between Tbilisi and Tehran the stream of Iranian tourists and investments increases. Finally, Tbilisi does not forget that Tehran did not recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and during the energy blockade in January 2006. Iran together with Azerbaijan helped Georgia to survive a severe winter. Taking all this into account we can conclude that Iran was not discussed in the Oval Office of the White House.

Georgi Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi. Specially for Vestnik Kavkaza.