Alexei Vlasov: “Aquab’s death could have brought crisis to Abkhazia”

Interview by RIA Novosti

Unknown perpetrators fired upon Abkhazian President’s cortege on February, 22. The head of the Republic wasn’t hurt, but one of his bodyguards was seriously injured. RIA Novosti correspondent asked the head of the Politological Center ‘North-South”, Alexei Vlasov, to comment on possible culprits and on the general situation in Abkhazia.

- Who would benefit today from the Abkhaz President’s death?

- First of all, it would be those why try to destabilize the situation in the republic. Aquab’s death could have brought a new crisis to Abkhazia, as today he is forming new governing elite, a new agenda. And if the attempt on his life was successful, the situation would have slipped to uncertainty again.

- What is the general state of affairs in Abkhazia now? What powers are more pro-Russian and what forces represent Georgian interests?

- After the 2011 presidential elections the situation in the country is relatively stable. A compromise between Anquab’s supporters and those of Shamba and Khadjimba has been reached. The major part of Abkhaz political elite is determined to develop the institutions of the independent state and to continue strategic cooperation with Russia, and there is no force that openly calls to re-join Georgia.

The main apple of discord among Abkhaz politicians is the issue of finance distribution. And there’s also the factor of personal hostility – a very important factor on the Caucasus.

In general, despite the intense campaigning of the summer 2011, the Abkhaz political elite demonstrated a high level of maturity.

- Did the transmission of power go smoothly after Bagaph’s death?

- Of course the election campaign wasn’t easy. The rivalry was harsh, especially between Anquab and Khadjimba. Their programs were very close, but their PR-techniques were completely different. Anquab worked with the electorate ‘face to face’, he understood he specificity of Abkhaz mentality better, while Shamba staked on such PR moves as billboards and TV publicity.  And even though there were some who disagreed with the poll results, in general Anquab managed to take the situation under control very quickly.

- And could this discontent you’ve mentioned be connected to the recent attempt on Anquab’s life?

- This isn’t the first attempt on his life. Some say there were five attempts, others say six o four. One thing is for sure – there are a lot of those who dislike his direct and harsh approach.

The action of February, 22 looks well-planned and seemed to be aimed against Abkhaz government in general, though. The attempt involved serious resources, so it doesn’t look like a personal vendetta or an attempt to scare the government to me.

- Some say that this attempt is connected to Anquab’s anti-corruption campaign…

- This was my fist thought when I learned about what had happened. Anti-corruption slogan was one of the pillars of his election campaign. And when his opponents suggested to fire all bureaucrats and recruit new ones, Anquab promised to investigate and find out who’s really guilty of corruption on all levels of the state administration.

So this attempt could really be a reaction of some criminal and semi-criminal structures to the President’s anti-corruption activity.

- Why did President Medvedev offer Russia’s help in the investigation? Is it a mere gesture of good will, or does he have something to gain?

- It is a normal reaction of a strategic partner. I think it would have been strange if Russia’s government didn’t make such an offer. And our law enforcement agencies have a history of successful cooperation. If the criminal version is correct, the trail could lead to Russian territory. I think the help of Russian police would be needed in such a case.

- So you think there’s no Georgian trail here?

- Everything is possible. But in order to avoid slipping into the ‘big conspiracy theory’ one should seriously consider the ‘Georgian trail’ version only when there’s actual evidence supporting it.

And in addition the West is getting used to Russia blaming Georgia for all incidents, so the effect of such claims is lowering. And the Georgians are now acting in a much more cautious manner.