Unrest in Azerbaijan's Quba: behind the scenes

The first day of spring in Azerbaijan was marked not only by the awakening of the nature, but also by a serious socio-political shake-up after a long civic hibernation. It seems that the unrest in the city of Quba took many by surprise. Such an aggravation of socio-political situation in the region that didn’t display any signs of social tensions was really unexpected. However, the scandalous video spread in the Internet featuring the head of the executive power of Quba region Rauf Gabibov who makes several statements offensive for the regions’ residents had a dynamite effect. In this video Gabibov accused the residents of the region of ‘selling the Motherland and even their own families for 30-40 manates”. Outraged crowd came to demand explanation to the governor’s office. The apologies made by garrulous Mr Gabibov and officials from Baku had no effect: furious citizens set some buildings of the executive power office as well as personal villa of Gabibov on fire.

According to the official release, the protest action started off as a peaceful one, but later certain ‘destructive elements’ started acting aggressively and pressuring their compatriots into breaking the law. Apart from the damaged state property, the riot resulted in serious injuries for three policemen.

There is no doubt that the notorious ‘Caucasus character’ played its part in unleashing of the events, as well as the modern communication technologies. On the Caucasus – no matter South or North – a public insult to a family isn’t something that is being forgiven and forgotten with ease.

Another aspect of the event, however, is of greater interest. Initially the crowd gathered holding Azeri flags and portraits of Ilham Aliev and started a peaceful demonstration. However, soon the situation got out of hand. In a few hours the angry crowd was burning and raiding the administrative buildings. The police arrested two dozens of the most active ‘protestors’. After that thousands of people surrounded the police station and demanded the arrestees to be released and Gabibov to be fired. At a certain point a skirmish between the protestors and the police forces broke out: according to the ‘Turan’ news agency close to the opposition, the crowed stoned the police officers after they refused to release the arrested activists. In its turn, the police used tear gas.

The interesting thing is that even after the events their participants, interviewed by radio ‘Liberty’ correspondents, said that they are partisans of President Aliev. They stressed that the action wasn’t aimed against the government, but against an individual bureaucrat that hampers healthy development of the region. So the reasons for the riot seem to be of purely local nature, even though the scandalous statements of this official were nothing but a final drop in the chalice of popular discontent with him.

After the negotiations between the people of Quba and the police mediated by Azerbaijani MP and Quba native Vakhid Ahmedov all arrestees were set free. And Rauf Gabibov was fired by a special presidential order on the next day.

So it seems that the incident was settled in a matter of one day, as all demands of the demonstrators were satisfied. However, several aspects remain unclear.

First of all, the reaction of the authorities to the riot was swift, but surprisingly moderate. There were no cases of disproportional use of force by the police; moreover, the number of seriously injured policemen is higher than that of the civilians. It seems that the servicemen were given specific orders to act with great caution to prevent the escalation of the situation. Secondly, the decision to dismiss Mr Gabibov from his office was taken right away - Vakhid Ahmedov announced the decision on March,1, two days before the official release, but he wouldn’t have announced the news unless he was absolutely positive about it.

Experts, however, stress that the final outcome of the situation will depend on the criminal proceedings enacted against those who damaged state property and private property of Gabibov. If those responsible escape punishment, the wave of arsons an hooliganism could spread, but if the courts would try to make an example of the culprits and give them ‘maximum’ sentences, that could escalate the social tensions. Whether the authorities will be able to find and punish the real instigators remains to be seen. The outcome of the legal proceedings is also not easy to predict.

One thing is obvious, however: the Azerbaijani opposition showed itself unprepared for the events in Quba. The so-called ‘Public Chamber’ that unites the opposition forces made a clumsy attempt to ‘saddle’ the events, but they were too late. The opposition issued a statement supporting the people of Quba, blaming the authorities for the whole situation and demanding reforms. But nothing can change the fact that this most influential opposition coalition had nothing to do nor with the organization of Quba demonstration, nor with the resolution of the situation. It demonstrates that the ‘Public Chamber’ has a very weak connection to the county’s regions and their residents. Frankly speaking, it also shows that the political oppositionist don’t possess accurate information about the attitude of the common people, while the people place their hopes in various forces including the acting power, but not in the opposition. This has been stated long ago, but neither the opposition nor the western human rights activists chose to believe it. It seems that the Quba events provide the necessary solid proof that the opposition has lost every connection to the people. In their turn, the people are capable of organizing themselves and opening up a dialog with the power, while the opposition can play only an extra’s part.

Nevertheless, the power has to ensure a more active contact with the residents of the regions so that any events of Quba-sort could be prevented.