Elections in IRI are closed

Ballot stations closed in Iran on March 2nd four hours later than was planned. The Ministry of Internal Affairs delayed the deadlines for officials to stop the voting, explaining the decision by the enormous number of citizens who wanted to vote. However,  the German newspaper Der Spiegel, citing witnesses, denies the reports on a high electoral presence.

A high electoral presence at the parliamentary elections was very important for the ruling regime: in the context of growing international pressure it would mean support for the current political system in the country. And the Iranian government – by agitation and prolongation of the elections – achieved the active participation of citizens in the electoral process. According to the Iranian Ministry of Internal Affairs, voter turnout surpassed 64%, which is quite a high rate. For example, during the last parliamentary elections in Iran the electoral presence was a little more than 55%.

At the moment counting of votes is taking place in Iran. However, we can sum up political results even now. According to preliminary data,  conservatives closed to Ayatollah Khamenei won. Supporters of the current president Mahmud Ahmadinejad got thrashed in the elections. Even Ahmadinejad’s sister Parvin yielded to a candidate from the conservatives.

The article was written before the complete results had been announced, but it seems the conservatives managed to win a majority of seats in the parliament. What is the reason for the failure of the President’s supporters? Probably it is the worsening of the economic situation in Iran, where food prices have grown after international sanctions. Of course, this growth has hit the poorest strata of the population, who were the main part of the president’s electorate. At the same time, the results of new elections have led to a situation which was predicted by many experts. Sanctions, military threats and foreign political pressure caused even greater conservatism in Iran. Ordinary Iranians support the Supreme Leader. And the reformist “green” opposition ignored the elections.

Thus, the Western scenario on “shaking” the political situation in Iran internally didn’t work. It is notable that US President Obama stated recently that he doesn’t “four-flush” talking about striking Iranian territory. A military strike is the last resort, but the creation of  an Iranian nuclear weapon is unacceptable for the USA.

It is evident that Iran will be the key theme at the coming meeting of President Obama and Israeli Premier Minister Netanyahu in Washington on March 4th. Analysts think that America would try to gain guarantees from Israel that it wouldn’t make a mess of things by attacking Iran alone. In case of an unavoidable response by Iran, the USA would find itself in a difficult situation: lose its closest ally or be involved in provoking a bloody war in the Middle East. The Israeli factor will influence the views of the Arab countries which are in confrontation with Iran at the moment. Turkey is also benched, as the Islamist government of Erdogan wouldn’t support Tel-Aviv in case of striking Iran.

It is also announced that in late March Turkish Premier Recep Erdogan will visit Iran, during which the Iranian nuclear program will be discussed. Turkey has a constructive position toward a settlement of the crisis around Iran; it has already developed an initiative on its settlement together with Brazil. However, the initiative underwent preliminary corrections by Iran, after which it was rejected by the West. In general, the position of Turkey is closer to the Russian one. Putin wrote in his article “Russia and the changing world” that Russia is worried about  the growing threat of a military strike on Iran. The Russian prime minister reminded that in Azerbaijan, with which Russia has historically “special relations”,  millions of refugees, ethnic Azerbaijanis from Iran, would flow in. At a meeting with Western media, Putin stated that Russia would do its best for a military conflict around Iran not to happen.

It is interesting that, ahead of the visit to Iran by the Turkish prime minister, a trilateral meeting between foreign ministers of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Iran will take place in Nakhchyvan. The sides will discuss tensions in relations between Iran and Azerbaijan, and Turkey will probably play the role of a mediator. However, the success of the mediation depends on the level of tension surrounding the Iranian issue in the world. Recently Tehran stated its readiness for negotiations on the nuclear program with “the six” (the five members of the UN Security Council and Germany). The Iranian parliamentary elections showed that the regime of the mullahs is firm, which  means that the world should try to meet it halfway again. The only alternative to negotiations is military conflict. And its consequences would be disastrous for everybody.

Orhan Sattarov. Exclusively  to VK