Abkhazia: no sensations

20 of 35 electoral districts of Abkhazia held second rounds of parliamentary elections on May 24. The formation of the new parliament is almost complete. Only in one district, where the turnout was too low, were the results cancelled and there will be new elections in May, and in another district an opposition candidate sought to cancel the results, but the Central Electoral Committee recognized the victory of his rival – the case, however, is still being processed. So, formally, 33 of 35 MPs are already elected. Who will become the MPs from the remaining two districts isn’t of great importance to the final balance of power within the new parliament. So now it is finally the time to draw the conclusions of a competition that has lasted since last summer. In general, it can be summed up in two words: “no sensations”.

In general, on the eve of the second round the Abkhaz opposition wasn’t claiming a parliamentary majority at all. The competition was intense, but it was within the strict boundaries of the law, without any artificial hysteria, without threats of organizing protest rallies that were so common during the 2011 and 2009 presidential elections. This time even the most radical oppositionists understood that the people have made their choice and that there’s nothing they can do about it. And is there a need to? The opposition leader, Raul Khadzhimba, became an MP, the members of his party have their places in the Parliament, they will have an opportunity to discuss and to participate in the country’s political life. However, it seems that the mode of this political life is about to change, so there’s a chance of new parties emerging and the old ones collapsing.

The main outcome of the 2012 elections is the defeat of the opposition, which was still hoping to win a parliamentary majority in winter. Secondly, all the old parties also suffered failure: the ‘bureaucrats' party’ – ‘United Abkhazia’ won only 3 seats. The Popular Unity Forum (PUF), which united almost all the opposition forces, won 4 parliamentary seats. ‘United Abkhazia’s’ leader, Daur Tarba, lost in the first round. The PUF leader, Raul Khadzimba, easily won in his district, as his rivals were not at all popular or even well-known. The political center in these elections was represented by the Communist party (whose leaders are far from radical and who are popular among the older generation) and by the Economic Development Party, headed by businessman Beslan Butba. Neither of these parties managed to win a single mandate. Only the veteran party ‘Amtsakhara’ escaped humiliation by not participating in the election at all. The general trend is that local party-free and yet widely unknown candidates were the ones to win local polls, due to their work with provincial voters. It is possible that some of them would oppose the President in the future, but the fact is that they have almost no connections to the traditional opposition – which is represented in the new parliament rather poorly.

We can say that the situation of 2007 repeated. In the parliamentary elections in March 2007 the opposition could lead six deputies and seven others participated in the second round. However, only one of them won. This time the opposition was luckier, but initial success wasn’t great, i.e. the parliament appears to be similar to the one elected five years ago.

In the first round several promising candidates of the opposition failed. In the second round Rita Lolua, Daur Arshba and Ruslan Kharabua failed to enter the parliament. Along with Valery Kvarchia they could form an “ideological core” of the opposition fraction. Succeeded in the second round candidates of PUF – Aslan Kobakhia, Apollon Gurgulia and Akhra Bzhania – are prominent politicians, but in general Khadzhimbists have few voices, even considering the fact their allies are Temur Logua, Kan Kvarchia, Artur Mikvabia. It is only about Khadzhimbists. The group of Shambaists was disintegrated by spring 2012. Sergey Shamba didn’t participate in the elections.

The opposition considers failure of several pro-governmental candidates as a success. Nugzar Ashuba has been the speaker for 10 years; he represented Eastern Abkhazians. Today President and the prime minister of Abkhazia are Western Abkhazians, it means the vice president and a new speaker should be Eastern Abkhazians. However, all prominent politicians who could head the parliament failed to enter it. That is why success of the ruling party wasn’t bright.

In many regions rivalry wasn’t in the sphere of “government-opposition,” like in the 1990s it was competition of individuals. Many candidates prefer gaining trust of the population rather than political debates. That is why the elections were disappointing for the intelligence and journalists, as candidates discuss the same circle of themes (agriculture, education, health care, drug addiction). In addition, many candidates refused from participation in debates between the first and the second rounds.

Failure of many party candidates, despite their attitude to President, and boring TV-debates made the idea of launching the party system of elections popular. At the same time, failure of all parties in the elections 2012 makes modernization of the party system of the country inevitable. And it is a long process.

In general the parliamentary elections in Abkhazia left a traditional impression of a process in which candidates, observers and voters know their rights and use them. During the second round the Central Election Commission didn’t register any complains.

What are the reasons for another failure of the opposition? Probably strategic mistakes were the main factor. From the very beginning the opposition hadn’t used resources it had. A lot of experiences politicians were out of play, even though they could be promoted in 35 regions. No new mottos, new ideas appeared. The Abkhazian intelligence is keen at modern political theories, it uses social nets and Internet communication, while many politicians use old methods. Sharp discussions in newspapers are not always interesting for people.

The last hope of the Abkhazian opposition is appointment of Raul Khadzhimba at the position of the parliamentary speaker. This hope isn’t based on number of votes guaranteed by the opposition, but on political combinations. Of course the leader of the fraction consisted of 4 deputies cannot automatically claim for the position of the parliament’s speaker. The only argument in his favor is that governmental supporters who could take this position failed to enter the parliament. That is why the opposition was so happy with failure of the former speaker Nugzar Ashuba. Nevertheless, personality of a new speaker is not very important in the political context. New rules of the political game, attraction of new players and further development of the civil society are much more interesting issues.

Spartak Zhidkov, Sukhumi, exclusively to VK