Tehran-Baku: subtotal

By Orkhan Sattarov, exclusively to VK

Relations between Azerbaijan and Iran haven’t been going so well since last summer: an alleged ‘Iranian trail’ in the murder of Azerbaijani writer Rafik Tagiev, a harsh diplomatic note exchange, Iranian spy network disclosure in Azerbaijan, accusations against Baku of cooperation with Israeli intelligence made by Tehran… This list of existing issues between the two countries isn’t full. The latest disturbing incident was provoked by the Foreign Policy article cited by all leading world media: according to the author of the publication, Azerbaijan granted Israel access to its aerodromes for preparation of an air-strike against Israel. This information was categorically denied by both Baku and Washington, but was Tehran convinced is an open question. Another negative episode happened during the recent visit of Azerbaijani Defense Minister Safar Abiyev to Iran, when Azerbaijani flag was hung upside-down during the official reception. This ‘procedural negligence’ left a bad feeling: the upper stripe of Azeri flag is blue, which symbolizes Turkic unity, but the Iranian side hanged the flag in such a way that the green stripe, symbolizing Islam, became the upper one. Mr Abiyev has assured his Iranian colleagues once more that Azerbaijan has no intention to lend its territory for any hostile actions against Iran, but at the same time Azerbaijani Interior Ministry has uncovered an alleged network of Iranian agents. According to our sources in Baku this arrest merely coincided with the Minister’s visit to Tehran, but some international observers saw a negative signal sent to Iran by Baku in the timing of this arrest. Others say that Baku officials tried to hint that the preservation of good-neighborly relations isn’t a one-way street to the Iranian government: Baku isn’t going to grant access to its territory to the anti-Iranian forces, but at the same time it won’t allow Iran to use its territory for its terrorist war against Israel and the US.

In any case, the expert community started doubting whether the restoration of normal relations between Azerbaijan and Tehran is even possible. Haven’t the two states reached the ‘point of no return’?

On April, 12 Azeri President Ilkham Aliev in his official statement stressed once more that Azerbaijan will never allow to use its territory in any anti-Iranian effort and even accused ‘third parties’ of deliberately provoking  a conflict between Azerbaijan and Iran. One of these ‘third parties’ is definitely Armenia, which has rather close relations with Iran and its own agenda in this matter.

Azerbaijani government intends to defend he state’s interests and national security even if these actions could be interpreted as ‘anti-Iranian activity’ by some of the Islam Republic’s spiritual leaders, but still it always stresses its intention to maintain good-neighborly relations with Iran. These ‘good-neighborly relations’, however, don’t imply that Iran can recruit agates from Azerbaijani Muslim radicals and wage terrorist war against Western and Israeli companies acting in Azerbaijan.

And the development of the cooperation with Israel is within the area of Azerbaijani national interests. First of all, the renewal of Azerbaijan’s arsenal is one of the state’s priorities, and Israel is open to military cooperation. And the media fuss about the $ 1.5 billion worth arms seal between the two countries is pretty much unfounded^ it is absurd to suggest that this purchase was aimed against Iran when one fifth of Azerbaijan’s territory is still under Armenian occupation and there is a possibility that Karabakh conflict would turn to a shooting war once more. During the recent government conference Azerbaijani President addressed the issue of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and said that the restoration of the state’s territorial integrity is the top priority of Azerbaijan, and if necessary, including the military ones, it is ready to use all means possible in order to achieve this goal. However, he also said that Azerbaijan would prefer to settle the conflict in a peaceful manner. So it is obvious that the arms purchase is a logical step towards making Azeri army more efficient is case of a new conflict with Armenia, and has nothing to do with Iran.

On the other hand, the tensions between Azerbaijan and Iran are an integral part of a bigger problem: the so-called 'Iranian nuclear problem'. And as the US and Israel tries to build an anti-Iranian coalition in the region, official Tehran is very sensitive about its immediate neighbors having any contacts with Washington and Tel-Aviv. The trilateral meeting of Azerbaijani, Turkish and Iranian FMs in Nakhchvan eased the tension. In the joint statement the three countries promised not to let anyone use their territories against any other participant of the meeting as well as recognized Iran’s right for a peaceful nuclear program. This statement can be regarded as a written guarantee of Turkey and Azerbaijan not joining the anti-Iranian coalition. A month later Turkey hosted negotiations between the ‘six’ and Iran regarding its nuclear program, and at the same time the tension between Azerbaijan and Iran also seems to be decreasing. On the other hand, the state of Azerbaijani-Iranian relations depends on the state of Turkish-Iranian relations as Baku and Ankara try to coordinate their policy towards Tehran. And there is a problem that turns out to be a new ‘apple of discord’ for Ankara and Tehran: their positions towards the Syrian crisis are diametrically opposite. Another negative factor is the aggravation in relations between Iran and the Persian Gulf monarchies. And Baku also closely monitors the development of the Iran-Armenian partnership.

In the end, Baku isn’t going to do anything to stain its relations with its southern neighbor any further, but it doesn’t mean that Iran is going to behave in the same way: it seems that Iran merely can’t embrace the fact that Azerbaijan is an independent sovereign state and not a break-away part of its own northern provinces. Current state of affairs gives a certain reason for optimism, but it is not unusual for Iran to behave in an irrational and unconstructive manner.